QOTD
Guy: "It's over, Johnny. It's over!"
Rambo: "Nothing is over. Nothing!"
- from "First Blood"
Intrade don't lie... it's over.


The media has a stake in the election game... make things seem exciting. A boring election means crappy ratings.
Ditto for polling companies. They make news by reporting extraordinary results, not the same old, same old.

Intrade doesn't have an axe to grind. It's a "prediction market" where people put their money on the table. The chart above shows Intrade's "price" for Obama presidential stock. If Obama becomes president, you win. If not, you lose. At 84%, Obama is now a 5:1 favorite over McCain.
  1. Obama spiked to 50% in early 2008 when he beat Hillary.
  2. Obama nudged up to 60% when McCain won the repub nomination... let's call this the "old man" effect. He he.
  3. Obama dipped back to 50% briefly after the repub convention powered by the Sarah Palin nomination.
  4. Obama quickly and steadily soared to his current 84% mark because of 1) the economic/stock market crisis, 2) the debates, and 3) the "old man" effect again. He he again.
So, it's over. Go get 'em Obama. I dare you to raise taxes in the middle of a recession. You've said that you're not that dumb, and that's one thing you've have said that I actually believe.

BTW, I just caught this one:
  • Bush (r) to Clinton (d) in 1992
  • Clinton (d) to W (r) in 2000
  • W ( r) to Obama (d) in 2008
All these presidential party transitions have been accompanied by recession or economic slowdown. I would have to guess, however, that W's goodbye recession is going to be a tad rougher than the previous two. Gulp.

BTW, again. McCain's age has been a major factor in Obama winning. I think an even bigger factor has been McCain's lack of a philosophy or value system... especially economically. Ah, who knows?

I'll say it again for the record. There will be more pressure on Obama to not cowtow to the dem Congress than there would have been on McCain. Shit, McCain trumpets wanting to work with these knuckleheads! In that respect, perhaps Obama can pull off a Bill Clinton-esque type of presidency. We shall see.
meet the new boss... yow, bill

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