Hey,

Great site: www.dshort.com


Some of my fave articles on the dshort blog...

1. Bear market history
This post has tasty charts on each of the 9 bear markets since 1950:

I'll snarf the current bear market chart for posterity.

Source: www.dshort.com

2. S&P regression to long-term trend

In this post, they calculate a long-term linear regression of S&P returns and show the market bouncing higher and lower over time... but always returning to the gravity of "average" long-term returns.

Here's the cool chart from that one:

Source: www.dshort.com

3. Market timing using moving averages
I've written about using moving averages to time investing. The moving average is just the average of prices over some time period, like the average daily price over the last 50 days.

Here's the really fascinating article, and there are lots of good links in there too:


I mean look at this "money" chart below. They use the 10 month average price to make timing decisions. The 10 month moving average is that red line. 1) You buy when the market is above its moving average (the red line), and 2) you sell when it's below:

Source: www.dshort.com

Super simple. Super results.

4. Wrap
As I spend my hours, I am more and more convinced that the next 10 years will be an era favoring smart investing, rather than buy-and-hold. I know. Duh. But the trick will be agile asset allocation and timing and smart guys analyzing the market on how best to make these decisions will win. We shall see.

Bear market, bad.
But it's never boring, eh.

QOTD

"Not just lawyers... but human beings."
- Radio commercial this morning

"Bikini Law Firm" (review)... I haven't seen it, but sounds like a must rent. He he.
grrrr... yow, bill

Labels: investing, movies, qotd