I'm writing from the hotel lobby in beautiful Si Valley for Aart's Aaward ceremony tonight. Travel usually means some reading and viewing... good and bad.

Labels: books, movies, qotd

QOTD

"The consequences of these actions were disastrous. Just look at the stock market from the post-Kennedy high in early 1966 to the pre-Reagan low in August of 1982. The average annual real return for U.S. assets compounded annually was -6% per year for 16 years. That, ladies and gentlemen, is a bear market. And it is something that you may well experience again. Yikes!"
- A Laffer, Oct 2008

From Today's WSJ...

Laffer draws a parallel between the political and economic missteps of our time to those in the late 60's and 70's. I don't know if he's right, but it's a worthy read.
yikes indeed... yow, bill

Labels: investing, qotd

Sports
QOTD

"There are some people in this room that don't need to be here.
We've got guys in here that are cancers.
The thing about cancer cells is, they multiply.
We've got to cut them out."
- Mike Singletary after his first game as coach of the 49'ers... they lost 34-13 to the crappy Seahawks

Singletary might be a great NFL coach. This whole story is pretty good:

Labels: investing, politics, qotd, sports

QOTD

"I think when you spread the wealth around it's good for everybody."
- Obama to the ubiquitous Joe the plumber... the quote of the campaign of 2008

Argentina's lefty government just implemented their version of "spread the wealth"... they are confiscating all private pensions for the public "good": Kirchner's Move on Pensions Hits Argentine Markets

BTW, that's Argentina's hot lefty Cristina Kirchner over there. Hey, she's almost as hot as our lefty, Barry.

QOTD - today!

"Their pensions go first!"
- Joe Biden on targeting the pensions of executives with "big salaries"

How's that for kismet.
sell... yow, bill

PS - Book Review: "The Third Angel" by Alice Hoffman... 2 bill-stars... too girly.

Labels: books, politics, qotd

QOTD

"a state of shocked disbelief"
- Alan Greenspan's reaction to the current credit crunch from biz.yahoo.com/ap/081023/financial_meltdown.html

Thanks, Alan.
I love that one.
green shades... yow, bill

Labels: investing, qotd

QOTD

"Life’s Too Short To Clean Your Own Home"
- I saw this slogan on a van parked at Portillos... I think it's these guys: The Cleaning Authority

There's a change for ya. Everybody used to clean their own houses.

The QOTD kind of creeps me out, but maybe I'm just old and out of touch. Growing up, I didn't know a soul who had a house cleaner or a lawn guy or any of that stuff. Maybe it's because I have a house cleaner and a lawn guy now, even though I don't want one. Stupid castle. Maybe it's Naperville. Nah. Maybe it feels like entitlement... and it's not sustainable. Maybe it's OK. I don't know.

Shit, people didn't work out or have multiple cars or organize every minute of their kids' lives... a lot has changed, I guess. Shit (again), I'm older than the shopping mall, so why shouldn't I be a little confused (dehydrated and disoriented). I relish trying to fathom some young person wanting to watch a video on their cellphone. Then, I do the math and realize I'm closer in age to fucking Moz than I am someone who's 21.

That's the rub though... I'm right on it. It's not that I don't understand all this stuff and technology and change. It's that I don't want it... presumably because I didn't have it and I am used to not having it. It's generational and it makes sense to me because it's like the rinse and repeat of life.

Stay tuned for my next post: Bill's toenail falls off. Exciting!
blech... yow, bill

PS - Hey, go Rays!

Labels: investing, qotd

QOTD

Guy: "It's over, Johnny. It's over!"
Rambo: "Nothing is over. Nothing!"
- from "First Blood"

Intrade don't lie... it's over.


The media has a stake in the election game... make things seem exciting. A boring election means crappy ratings.
Ditto for polling companies. They make news by reporting extraordinary results, not the same old, same old.

Intrade doesn't have an axe to grind. It's a "prediction market" where people put their money on the table. The chart above shows Intrade's "price" for Obama presidential stock. If Obama becomes president, you win. If not, you lose. At 84%, Obama is now a 5:1 favorite over McCain.

1. Obama spiked to 50% in early 2008 when he beat Hillary.
2. Obama nudged up to 60% when McCain won the repub nomination... let's call this the "old man" effect. He he.
3. Obama dipped back to 50% briefly after the repub convention powered by the Sarah Palin nomination.
   
4. Obama quickly and steadily soared to his current 84% mark because of 1) the economic/stock market crisis, 2) the debates, and 3) the "old man" effect again. He he again.
   

So, it's over. Go get 'em Obama. I dare you to raise taxes in the middle of a recession. You've said that you're not that dumb, and that's one thing you've have said that I actually believe.

BTW, I just caught this one:

• Bush (r) to Clinton (d) in 1992
• Clinton (d) to W (r) in 2000
• W ( r) to Obama (d) in 2008

All these presidential party transitions have been accompanied by recession or economic slowdown. I would have to guess, however, that W's goodbye recession is going to be a tad rougher than the previous two. Gulp.

BTW, again. McCain's age has been a major factor in Obama winning. I think an even bigger factor has been McCain's lack of a philosophy or value system... especially economically. Ah, who knows?

I'll say it again for the record. There will be more pressure on Obama to not cowtow to the dem Congress than there would have been on McCain. Shit, McCain trumpets wanting to work with these knuckleheads! In that respect, perhaps Obama can pull off a Bill Clinton-esque type of presidency. We shall see.
meet the new boss... yow, bill

Labels: politics, qotd

"Lions and Bears!!! The old-time rivalry is alive and well!"
- TV announcer at today's Bear-Viking game

QOTD2

"You're so ugly; you make my skin crawl. No, wait... that's my maggots!"
- Disembodied head display at the Halloween store

Klaatu barada nikto.
gort... yow, bill

Labels: fun, qotd

QOTD

"I've tried to avoid teaching, which for all its charm takes a lot of your energy and makes you doubt yourself."
- John Updike from http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122419950877642737.html

In the Q&A with Updike, he describes his daily habit: wakeup and write 3 pages. He's 76, and it sounds like he still follows that regimen. That's a good habit to copy.

QOTD2

"It's not that I want to punish your success... I think when you spread the wealth around, it's good for everybody."
- Barack Obama, Oct 2008 on his plan to tax the bejesus out of "Joe the plumber"

If the repub nominee for president can't run with this shit... ay carumba!
personal freedom and responsibility... yow, bill

Labels: fun, politics, qotd

QOTD

"That's a long ass project."
- Chris the Commish, on my copying all my photo albums

I'm trying to figure out the best way to scan in a zillion old photo albums.

Here's my first test:

• I have approx. 400 prints from 3 separate albums
  
• I want 600 dpi scans... to get high reprint quality
  
• I want the digital files of the scans... on DVD or CD
  
• I want reprints made... for Felecia

I called 5 places today (Oct 15, 2008).

ScanCafe

Go:

1. Scan cost - 400 x $.27 per print = $108.
2. Reprints - They don't do reprints. Dop!
3. Wait - 6-8 weeks to process, then 10-15 business days after I select what I want from the website. Jeez!
4. Order - They scan in your order and maintain your packaging. They create an online folder for each package of prints you send.
5. Where - The scanning is done in Bangalore.
   

Subtotal = dop... they don't do reprints!
I think these guys are competing mainly on price, not service of quality.
The phone guy was in outer Mongolia on a bad internet phone. 6-8 weeks to process... forget it!

BritePix

Go:

1. Scan cost - 400 x $.39 = $160
   
2. Reprints - 400 x $.22 = $88
   
3. Wait - 10-12 business days
   
4. Order - They scan as organize and create a digital folder for each package.
5. Where - The scanning is done in Miami or Costa Rica or something.

Subtotal = $160 + $88 = $248
Another bad Internet phone here.
The Miami/Costa Rica thing is a little suspect.

DigMyPics.com

Go:

1. Scan cost - 400 x $.45 = $180
   
2. Reprints - 400 x $.11 = $44 (Kodak)
   
3. Wait - 4-7 business days
   
4. Order - They create digital folders for each group.
   
5. Where - The scanning is done in Mesa, AZ.

Subtotal = $180 + $44 = $224.
The girl answering the phone was good, though she tried selling me that 300 DPI was just fine for reprints. Whatever.

ScanMyPhotos

It looks like they only do 300 dpi... prognosis negative!

Legacy

Go:

1. Scan cost - 400 x $.49 = $200
   
2. Reprints - 400 x $.19 = $80 (Qualex/Kodak reprints)
   
3. Wait - 3-4 weeks to online gallery
   
4. Order - Yes. I can also tell them what to name the folders and files.
   
5. Where - The scanning is done right there in Grove City, OH.

Subtotal = $200 + $80 = $280
It was just a guy on the phone, sounded like the clerk at the photo store. I think this is "good", but who knows.
The reprints are made through Kodak ("Qualex"?). You select reprints from their online gallery and Kodak has then made locally and sends them to you. I guess that's OK.

Conclusion
OK, I originally was keeping track of shipping, but they all seemed pretty much the same.
In fact, the cost difference on any of these guys isn't dramatic, except ScanCafe, and I didn't get a warm and fuzzy from them over the phone.

So, ranking on "feel" and options:

5. ScanMyPhotos - only 300 dpi
4. ScanCafe - no reprints, long wait
3. BritePix - bad vibe, bad internet phone call
2. Legacy - I like the local place, it costs a little more
1. DigMyPics

I think I'll try DigMyPics. The only thing I'm not crazy about is the Kodak printing, but Legacy does that too. They had the best customer service, and they (supposedly) have 3 steps (as detailed on their website) where they do a quality check: scanning, color correction, and final review. I hope they really have some manual intervention because scanning is a dang squirrelly process.

Stay tuned!
luck to me... yow, bill

PS - I have already figured out one trick. I wasn numbering photos to remember their proder in my albums. That sucked. So, now I am going to take index photos of each page, so that I can recreate the original album order. This is much faster... so far!
PPS - See!

Labels: qotd, technology

QOTD

"We've had virtually no calls, only a handful."
- Theodore Aronson, money manager about his "numb" investors/clients during this market decline

Great article on the recent decline: What History Tells Us About the Market
Points:

1. People are numb (see quote above) right now. The next stage is capitulation. That means finally looking at your statement and sell-sell-selling.
   
2. Charles Schwab currently has $28B in cash and a market cap of only $21B? In fact, the article claims that about 10% (876 of 9,194) of the companies that S&P follows are trading below their cash value. Great, but unfortunately, this is a common occurrence when the credit market seizes up and takes the stock market down, ala 1929-1932.
   
3. Some pointy-head in the article says "the market is moving on fear, not facts"... which is a common reprise these days. How can you say that? The stock market looks forward. Well, what does the future hold? We have a credit crunch of unforseen length and severity ahead of us. We a pretty sure to have a recession... like a real one this time, not the wussy recessions of 1990, 2001, etc. That cloudy future is being discounted by the stock market, and it seems to me to be a reaction to facts as much as fear.
4. Corporate Bonds Slide Along With Stocks is another good WSJ article. The yields are pretty incredible... corporate bonds are yielding 8.5% on average. But how do you hop on these when even GE is kissing Warren Buffet's ass to stay afloat?
   

Oh well... how about a little book review.

Book: "Ordinary Love & Good Will" by Jane Smiley
Review: 3 bill-stars (out of 5)
Web site: Nope.

OK, so I'm searching for a website for Jane Smiley, and I run across her blog at the Huffington Post. I think the Huffington Post rates up there with moveon.org and Daily Kos. I think. I gotta admit that I haven't swum too deep in that pool... because even the slightest contact with that murky water dredges up hatred and the kind of zealous bias that is so uncomfortable to be around.

Jane Smiley's blog is that kind of irrational hatred.

• Jane Smiley hates Sarah Palin. In a blog entry "That look on her face", Smiley says that she can devine Sarah Palin's true character by reading her facial expressions and hand gestures.
• Jane Smiley hates John McCain. She (unfavorably) compares his service in Viet Nam to the terrorist acts of Bill Ayers (which she defends).
• And an oldie, but a goodie... Hank Paulson's bailout plan is just a scheme for repubs to steal the election. Drat. Another election "stolen" by those nasty republicans. I blame Cheney.
  

I can recognize Jane Smiley's blind hatred. I can recognize the smallness of character and immaturity that is at its core. I can't, however, figure out how to change or even communicate with people like this.

Ironically, Jane Smiley seems to be more in tune with today's politics. I am the one out of step. Emotion trumps reason! Right? And people question the irrationality of the financial markets these days?!?!

An example: Kim39 sent me an email from a relative of hers that condemned not only Sarah Palin, but everyone in Alaska. The email hit me not only in its absurdity, but also that this person felt no hesitation in freely distributing a correspondence filled with such bigotry and hate. There seems to be a complete absence of introspection, asking herself questions like:

• "Hmm, I wonder if people will think I'm a bigot for distributing this", or
• "I wonder if this will be offensive to people", or
  
• "Is my calling Sarah Palin a 'red neck' and all of Alaska uneducated and uncaring about the rest of world rational and well thought out?"
  

Well, Meg-whoever-you-are, you are a bigot. You and Jane Smiley are bigots born of entitlement. You are so certain of your world view that you feel entitled to slash and burn whatever lies in your path. Anything that deviates from your righteous position is not to be tolerated. Yours is a philosophy of intolerance and hatred. Please count me out. As Marilyn Manson said, "I hate the hater."

Again, the characterization is an easy call... fixing it is another matter. Perhaps the only solution is to just keep calling it what it is and maybe some day small, unthinking people like Meg or Jane Smiley will take a moment to realize, "Wow, I really made an ass out of myself there. That was despicable behavior."

Jane Smiley's book barely crossed the 3 bill-stars (worth reading) barrier. It's two 100-page novellas. "Ordinary Love" is about a family reunion sort of situation. "Good Will" is a little better; it's about a family living off the land when things go wrong wrong wrong. Both these stories are pretty lackluster, but Smiley gets by on her smooth-as-butter writing style. Wanna see?

QOTD2

"I can't say that I forgive my father, but now I can imagine what he probably chose never to remember - the goad of an unthinkable urge, pricking him, pressing him, wrapping him in an impenetrable fog of self that must have seemed, when he wandered around the house late at night after working and drinking, like the very darkness. This is the gleaming obsidian shard I safeguard above all the others."
- Jane Smiley, "A Thousand Acres" (a 5 bill-star book, BTW)

Money.
peace... yow, bill

PS - Love the google stream of conciousness... to the right is the CD cover for Sade's "No Ordinary Love". He he!

Labels: books, investing, politics, qotd

Movie: Ghost Town
Review: 4 bill-stars (out of 5)

IMDB: www.imdb.com/title/tt0995039

It was fun, funny, light-hearted.
It was pretty different and pretty good... that's 4 bill-stars.
It's great to see a regular guy as a lead in a movie. No Brad Pitt or Tom Cruise or Clooney or... anything different is welcome at this point, right?

Let's see... a little sappy at the end and it's not as good as Ghost World.
Done.
boo... yow, bill

Labels: movies

QOTD

"I've said it before, and I'll say it again: democracy just doesn' t work"
- Kent Brockman, "The Simpsons"

Well, I watched my first prez debate this election year.
There was a clear loser in last night's debate: me.
Yawn. He he.

Ya know. I don't think McCain believes in half the shit he's saying or proposing. He is relying completely on the experience card. You've gotta have more than that, especially since the experience with him, um, ain't so great.

I think Obama has the election won. The positives of this:

1. He's a relatively young guy... 47 years-old is a pretty good age. It's a heck of a lot better than 70-something.
   
2. He must be smart... Harvard Law and all.
3. He has charisma, so maybe he'll use that charisma as a positive when he's actually in power. I dislike his supporters and the media more than Obama.
4. I believe in the American people and their choices. Was Nixon our last presidential gaffe? He beat Hubert Humphrey in 1968. I don't know.
   

So, enough of the "Barry" and my shenanigans.
Meet the new boss... "Barack".

The S&P 500 is below 1,000. The rest of the stock markets on the planet are worse.
I hope these links don't go away:

• Your Money: Keeping It Safe
  
• Where pros are putting their cash
  

The message in the links above, from "pros" and financial advisers/planners, is almost universal: buy and hold.
Golly. I don't know about that.
Hey, maybe they're right. Maybe I'm wrong. I hope they're right.
It sure doesn't seem that way though.

Keep the positivity.
smile... yow, bill

PS - Re. the debate... at least someone sort of agrees with me: The worst debate ever

Labels: politics, qotd

QOTD

"The heels are on; the gloves are off."
- Sarah Palin

Two more blatant hit pieces on Sarah Palin:

1. A race-card smear by the AP:Analysis: Palin's words carry racial tinge
   
2. A Newsweek hit piece: The Palin Problem
   

There is no lower profession in America than journalism.
None.

Can we acknowledge and recognize the fact that the main-stream media in this country is partisan? The credibility of sources like the AP, Newsweek, CNN and others has sunken below the horizon of credibility for years now.

There's an anger on the left. This anger is zealous and righteous and sarcastic and negative and entitled and intolerant and...

Disclaimer: OK, I'll vie it to you. I know John McCain will throw anyone/everyone under the bus at the drop of a hat. I know that he's a hundred years old. Other than the military, I can't figger a single dang thing that the guy really stands for. And so on.

I'll go even further. I can't tell you that McCain will be a better President than Obama. Who knows? Clinton got in there and turned into a pragmatist... passing NAFTA, welfare reform, etc. W gets in there and the stock market tanks. Go figger.

So, I'm voting for McCain.
Or more accurately, I'm voting against Obama.
Three reasons:

1. No Experience: Yes, Obama has even less experience than Sarah Palin. He hasn't run anything, so now the US? I don't think so.
2. Lefty: Obama is a hard-core leftie... bigger government (bigger than $3T?!?!?!), anti-military, anti-US, anti-business, anti-rural, anti-religion, etc. Everything sucks for the left. This is not what makes America great.
   
3. The Wailing: Close your eyes and imagine the wailing if Barry loses. I know it's a stretch, but just imagine. Man, that's a big smile! I want to vote against those that slash and burn in the name of Barry... the media, Europe, academia, celebrities, etc. You know you're doing something right when you're on the opposite side of that group.
   

And yes, I heart Sarah Palin.

QOTD2

"This is not a man who sees America like you and I see America. We see America as a force of good in this world. We see an America of exceptionalism."
- Sarah Palin on Barry O'Bama

Gol dang it... that's what I'm talking about!
palin for prez... yow, bill

PS - And if you're a leftie or a dem and reading this... I could-a probably voted for Hillary. Funny, how someone pragmatic like Hillary Clinton would have been an ideal candidate in these tough economic times. So, don't blame me! As Mike LaFontaine says, "Hey, Wha happen?" He he!

Labels: politics, qotd, video

QOTD

"I think you're crazy. This whole thing doesn't make any sense."
- Old man on the sidewalk hassling some poor runner schlub who cramped up during the marathon

Hey, fuck that old man. Here's a better one.

QOTD2

"RUN BILL RUN!"
- I saw this sign 3-4 times while running, but I never saw their Bill

My marathon result today: a B (see previous post for grading scale... he he)
I ran the thing in 3 hour, 44 minute, 42 second.
That's an 8 minute, 35 second pace for the run. Huzzah!

Here's the "official" tally: Lakefront Marathon 2008 Results (you have to search for me)
If you don't want to search for me, here's some of my favorite stats:

• I placed 489 out of 2009 runners
• I finished 66th out of the 160 45-50 males
• My splits: Halfway 1:49:57, 20 mile 2:48:38
  

It was a bit weird because the conditions were dang near ideal (and 10x better than last year)... and yet I never really got comfortable or found my groove. I've had much better feeling training runs. In fact, my halfway split last year in the heat and humidity was faster than this year.

What else?

• I'm happy that I didn't cramp up or break down. My legs were twitchy, but they never gave out.
  
• I'm really happy that I had a kick at the end. I wanted to beat 3:45, and I kicked pretty hard the last half mile to make sure of that.
• I'm even happier that I'm now retiring from the marathon business. I'm a sprinter baby. Maybe I'll try and run some fast 10K's next year or something.
• So, I figger... at 3:45... I'm not a marathon tourist, but I'm not a "real" marathoner either. I'll take "rank amateur" or maybe "marathon hack"... yeah, I like that. I was a marathon hack for a couple-a years.
  

I was philosophical while running. It occurred to me, when I realized that a Boston-qualifying 3:30 was not going to happen... it occurred to me that this is a typical 40-something victory... bittersweet. God, it was a sweet feeling to have that kick at the end, and to run under 3:45. It was great to not limp in to the finish. It was bitter to not do better and to not have felt really comfortable in the race.

It appears that the world-dominating victories of my 20's and 30's will not be repeated. 40-something victory is a good time, but not a great time. It's thyroid cancer, but you probably got rid of it. It's learning something new, even though you're never going to plant a flag anywhere doing it. It's a rubber band around your wrist to remind you of your kids, and that they mean you have it all. 40-something victory is less sharp, a little more rounded around the edges. Like my 3:45 time... hey, it's pretty good.

Oh well. I tip my cap to Mr. Marathon. Crusty old man. There's no faking it with that guy. That's kind of nice, I think.
peace... yow, bill

PS - Happy 39th birthday Kim39.
PPS - It's 4 years since Gram died today too. Gram's stubbornness continues on... at least in the half-assed, diluted form that is Bill 40-something Krieger.

QOTD3

"With Gram, you always knew there was somebody who would be happy to see you."
- Brian Krieger

Labels: marathon, qotd

2 miles. Done.
Jeez, it was beautiful out there.

This morning is a wrap on marathon training. Huzzah!
Here are the happy, crappy totals:

• Jul: 18+14+25+22+0 (Ty vacation, he he) = 79
• Aug: 32+27+20+34 = 113
• Sep: 39+27+44+25+6= 141

So, the tally is 333 miles training this summer.
I like Kim39's quote: "It's like you're a car." He he.

I am a slave to the weather, which sucks. Today is just awesome. The forecast for Sunday is almost as good. We shall see.

It's pretty much the same old, same old this year. The small tweaks are:

• I've only lost 3-4 pounds, so I'm running maybe 6-8 pounds heavier than last year. I'm on the wagon, but I think last year I watched my diet a lot more.
• Eat more before the run... my longest training run was 3 hours, 15 minutes. I ate a lot before it, and I think it helped. I think I was just plain running out of energy. So, before the marathon, I'll fuel up on oatmeal, banana, OJ, and a power bar or two. I'm also going to snarf as much gu during the run as I can.
  
• Medicate... I'm going to snarf a couple Advil at the halfway point. I also am going to slap a couple of those Salon Paas (?) pain patches to my calves because they're barking lately.

My pace dream/hope: hit 15 miles in about 2 hours... and then see what's left in the tank for the last 11. Of course, I pretty much did that last year and then gacked.

I'm cranky. The guy in DC calling me a marathon tourist... losing last year to the weather and cramping up from head to toe... having to do this crap again... I'm cranky to win.
Here's the fucking kitty:

• A+... 3 1/2 hours (Boston)
  
• A... 3 hours, 38 minutes (better than someone)
  
• B... 3 hours, 45 minutes (8 1/2 minute miles)
  
• C... 4 hours (9 minute miles)
  
• D/F... fuck it (dop)
  

QOTD

"Bet it all. Win it all."
- Brian Krieger

run old man... yow, bill

PS - This is what I'm cranky about... here's a photo of me getting my ass beat last year:


PPS - Tourist. Old man. We'll fucking see this year.
PPPS - Yes, I'm certifiable. So what.

Labels: marathon, qotd