For 2010, only one Bill-resolution... improve my meditation quality and quantity.


Three Big Stories
Three big stories this year for my money:

1. Rebound of the stock market and economy
2. Passing of the crappy health care bill... could be the worst piece of legislation in my adult lifetime
   
3. With the ClimateGate emails and guys like Bjorn Lomborg, we saw the first significant (I fucking hope) chinks in the global warming armor that been allowed to see the light of day by the main-stream media
   

We shall see what 2010 holds for all 3 of these stories.

Here's another global warming article... we don't know what fraction of man-made CO2 goes into the atmosphere. This guy suggests this ratio/fraction has remained stable.

Desiderata
I got this poem or tome or whatever called "Desiderata" in a Christmas card this year (from Aunt Phyllis). I like it. Preachy and blah blah, but it's worth a read. Here's an online version:


My fave QOTD from that is...

QOTD

"Be yourself. Especially do not feign affection.
Neither be cynical about love,
for in the face of all aridity and disenchantment,
it is as perennial as the grass."
- from Desiderata

Happy New Year!
yow, bill

PS - Marisa all 40-something crinkly and hot hot hot:

Labels: fun, globalwarming, qotd

QOTD1

"Listen here, you jackass. In all my years as a sailor I have never seen a bigger bonehead move." The man came right up to the edge of the boat. "Just who in the hell do you think you are?"

"I'm a federal agent," replied Rapp as he pointed at the dead bodies laying in the aft sundeck. "I killed those two right there, there's a third one down in the cabin, and unless you want to be number four I'd advise you to get your ass off this dock and out of my face right now!"
- Mitch Rapp rant from "Memorial Day"

Book: "Memorial Day" by Vince Flynn
Review: 5 bill-stars (out of 5)... amazing!

Best of the Mitch Rapp series thus far... nukes and terrorists and pols and lawyers and Mitch Rapp and... sigh.
Too great.


QOTD2

"Mr. Jackson, if you shut your mouth for a second I'll explain. Are you recording this call?" Rapp listened to the lawyer's reply. "Good. Here's the deal. Your client is guilty. Come Tuesday morning certain information will be made public, and when that happens I can promise you that you will wish you'd never met Ahmed al-Adel." Rapp listened for a few seconds and then laughed. "No, Mr. Jackson, that wasn't a threat. If I thought you were a real problem, I wouldn't waste my time threatening you... you'd simply disappear."
- Mitch Rapp rant from "Memorial Day"

Next!
he he... yow, bill

Labels: 5stars, books, qotd

Pretty good story in the WSJ this morning...


QOTD

"For 20 minutes we read or sent emails and spoke nary a word to each other. "
- Guy standing outside the health club... the impact of technology, WSJ source

It's a question I'm confronted with more and more... how much technology will you incorporate into your life?

• This blog... YES! This is fun.
• Other blogs... Iffy. I have a long blog roll in my Reader of mostly investing blogs... the content seems more and more like shit every day. Here's a classic example of a guy (Slope of Hope) calling everyone who made money in 2009 (presumably, he didn't) "dumb": www.slopeofhope.com/2009/12/dumb-luck.html
• Twitter... NO. Yawn.
• Smart cellphones... Iffy. I won't pay for a cellphone. Or rather, I haven't had to pay for a cellphone yet. My current version has a camera and limited Internet browsing which I almost never use. I also don't carry my stupid phone everywhere I go.
  
• Internet dating... YES! How else are you going to meet people, married friends? Married people are the enemy. Also, www.meetup.com is a great site!
• Facebook... Iffy. Facebook is love/hate. Love the fun, when it is... dislike the negativity that is so pervasive.
  
• Ipod... Iffy. I don't like the ear buds. I think eventually I'll load up one of these suckers for my car, but I'm not pining to do so. I heart my CD's.
  
• DVR... NO. I don't need to watch more TV. If there's nothing on, then go read a book.
• Blu-ray DVD... NO. Can't tell the diff.
• Ebooks... Not yet. Once the technology gets better, then I'll partake.
  

And so on...
I guess the point is... this is becoming more and more a conscious decision for me. Where to jump in the tech pond and where not to.

Ty called me a Luddite this morning, in so many words. I was mocking his tech-boast of downloading this or that onto his PSP. He's getting good too because he mentioned the odd contrast of me being a computer science guy and a Luddite at the same time.

Obviously, I can only SMILE... so SMILE I do.
What a great kid.
Then, I pummeled him in ping pong for an hour.
he he... yow, bill

PS - Congrats to KGG Football on his 2009 title... www.williamt.com/fantasy/football/season2009/index.htm

En homage... a kelly green bikini with some chick name Kelly, I think:

Labels: fun, technology

Disclaimer: I went to the 2D version of Avatar, not the 3D or the Imax.
Sorry, I'm not a 3D fan.

Movie: "Avatar"
Review: 2 bill-stars (out of 5)... not good, not worth it


I sat through 2 1/2 hours of Avatar wondering whether I was missing something because it's so popular. I guess it's a bad sign that you're wondering during a movie, rather than getting into it.
Anyway, the movie ended... flat as a pancake... and the (nearly full) audience sighed, yawned, and headed for the exits.
So, I wasn't alone.

Avatar characters were caricatures. The plot was slow, boring and silly. For fans of director James Cameron, which I am, there's a lot of redo here from his "Aliens 2" and "Titanic". Indeed, I really liked those two movies:

1. "Aliens 2" - silly characters and plot, but an incredible action movie
2. "Titanic" - silly again, but girlie romantic story was OK, great effects, and good performances throughout with Leo and Winslet and Billy Zane
   

QOTD

"What the hell was he doing?"
- Moz after the movie... on reports that James Cameron made "Avatar" edits right up to its release

Mozy's quote is from mini-burgers after the movie, and it's a good question. "Avatar" is bloated and would have benefited from some tightening up.

To those who saw the 3D version and liked it, I say "Huzzah!"
To those of us who yawned through the 2D version, I say "Meh."
"Avatar" isn't really bad... just kind-a mediocre.
peace out... yow, bill

PS - And into the abyss we go... Jan, Feb, Mar... 3 months without fantasy baseball or football. Sigh. He he.
PPS - BTW, "The Abyss" is another good James Cameron movie.

Labels: 2stars, movies

QOTD

"Commit to the Indian!"
- Dennis Savard rant

Savvy's rant is classic, and it's here (for now): www.youtube.com/watch?v=6gM6REx3NVY

Follow the youtube chain for 60 seconds worth of jaw-dropping Savvy goals from back in the day: www.youtube.com/watch?v=vB_LC10N3xU&feature=fvw
Spin move!

I heart Savvy.
winter wonderland... yow, bill

Labels: fun, qotd, sports

QOTD1

"Illness is the night side of life, a more onerous citizenship.
Everyone who is born holds dual citizenship, in the kingdom of the well and in the kingdom of the sick."
- Susan Sontag

It sure seems that some (many?) need illness and adversity to realize what they have.
Count me out. I gots it all, and I know it.

QOTD2

"Calling Rapp a counterterrorism operative was essentially a polite way of ducking the truth. When everything was stripped away, the reality was that he was an assassin. He had killed, and killed often, for his country, and in his mind 9/11 was proof that he hadn't killed enough."
- Vince Flynn, "Memorial Day"

I heart these Mitch Rapp books.

QOTD3

"... we got 95 percent of what we called for"
- President Obama on the health care bill, source

This guy is a 3 dollar bill... bald-faced liar.
The economy better not turn south, ya tourist.

QOTD4

"My wife gives good headache."
- Rodney Dangerfield

He he.

QOTD5

"Everything you need to teach your fish amazing tricks."
- R2 Fish School, www.r2fishschool.com/

Kim39 got Ty a Christmas goldfish.
We're supposed to train him to play soccer and make toast.
Stay tuned.

Finally, XKCD has a good, nerdy Christmas strip: Christmas Plans

Merry Christmas.
yow, bill

Labels: fun, politics, qotd

1. Historic Collapse

QOTD setup... Bull lead by 35 points, 79-44 with 8 minutes left in the 3rd quarter, at home, to Sacramento, a crappy 2-11 team on the road. Go.

QOTD

"I'll tell you what. If the Bulls lose this game, I'm walking to New York."
- Chuck Swirsky, Bull radio guy last night... the Bull play the Knick tonight

QOTD wrapup... Bull lose 102-98, boxscore.
ESPN says it's the second biggest comeback in NBA history.
I heart Swirsky and Bill Wennington, the Bull radio team.
I do not heart Vinny or D-Rose.

2. Pet Slaughter
I'm a little scratchy this morning... fighting the eck... so pardon my French.

Just one more more tiny, itty-bitty discrepancy for our fucking liar global warming friends.

Labels: globalwarming, qotd, sports

QOTD

"In nearly 200 years of recorded stock-market history, no calendar decade has seen such a dismal performance as the 2000s."
- WSJ today, source

If that weren't enough the WSJ kindly provides fancy graphics to visually display the investing carnage of the 2000's:


OK, I snarfed two of the charts for you (and perpetuity)... this first one is annual rate of return for each decade since flipping 1830. Crap.



The second killer graph add the poison of inflation to the mix. Barf.


Well, we were there. I guess that's saying something.
Also, I hope the 2010's are better. I hope we're not Japan. I hope... oh, never mind.

Let's cheer up with an excellent picture of Sarah Palin.
dreamy... yow, bill

PS - Addendum... hate to wreck the Sarah buzz, but here's Faber's (Ivy Portfolio guy) comparison between the US and Japan. Gulp.

Labels: fun, investing, qotd

An instant holiday classic... just a minute and a half of goodness... the Al Gore global warming poem.


And here's the poem:

One thin September soon
A floating continent disappears
In midnight sun

Vapors rise as
Fever settles on an acid sea
Neptune's bones dissolve

Snow glides from the mountain
Ice fathers floods for a season
A hard rain comes quickly

Then dirt is parched
Kindling is placed in the forest
For the lightning's celebration

Unknown creatures
Take their leave, unmourned
Horsemen ready their stirrups

Passion seeks heroes and friends
The bell of the city
On the hill is rung

The shepherd cries
The hour of choosing has arrived
Here are your tools

QOTD

"Wow.
I'm so glad you read that.
I was, really, I'm very happy... I'm happy to hear it in your voice."
- CBS talking head fawning over Gore reading his poem

Dammit, that's funny.
smile... yow, bill

PS - And could socialized medicine be collapsing?!?!? Here's a Howard Dean rant... again... he he... get it? Dang, Santa, I hope you're out there. He he... I mean, ho ho.

Labels: globalwarming, healthcare, politics, qotd

Boffo WSJ this weekend!

1. Warren Buffet peers into the abyss
A great summary article of the 2008 meltdown from Warren Buffet's perspective.


QOTD1

"I bought my first stock in 1942, and this roller coaster surpassed anything that I've seen"
- Warren Buffet on 2008's crash of the financial system

I'll admit. I don't understand how Buffet is looking into the abyss in 2008, and then just a year later, nearly every economic indicator is (green-) shooting positive. This blog post is a great summary of that, BTW, with lot of tasty charts:


BTW, I know this will change at some point, but look how fucked up Berkshire Hathaway's web site it: www.berkshirehathaway.com. He he he. Reminds me of williamt.com a decade ago or so.

2. Health care radical improver
I heart this guy. Jonathon Bush, CEO of athenahealth. They're a hi-tech company bringing 21st century software products to health care practitioners.

I haven't read a better article summarizing the real answer to improving health care in the US: creativity, innovation, freedom, choice, competition. What a great article!


QOTD2

"If we feel like rich people should pay more for not-rich people's health insurance, that's fine. But just give them the money. It's [Obamacare] totally inefficient wealth redistribution because they can't get creative with it. They're not allowed by law to get creative with it."
- Jonathon Bush, CEO of athenahealth

Imagine applying the creativity and competition we see in the cell phone market, but to health care. Now, that's a solution! That's power!

3. Naked (and nonsensical) Copenhagen
To the pols and the media, global warming means tax hikes and greater governmental/centralized control of our economy. Here's an article by a guy, Richard Muller from Berkeley (oh my!), who believes in global warming (I think) and uses common sense to argue against nonsense like cap-and-trade or other carbon tax schemes in the US:


QOTD3

"But the bottom line is that 80% cuts in U.S. emissions will have only a tiny benefit. The bulk of our effort is best directed at helping the emerging economies conserve energy and move rapidly toward efficient solar, wind and nuclear power. Developing cheap carbon capture and sequestration is also a priority. Above all, we need to recognize that make-the-West-bear-the-burden Copenhagen proposals are meaningless."
- Richard Muller, Berkeley physics prof

Believe in global warming or not, the plan to raise taxes and increase the role of government here in the US to combat global warming is a canard.

Nice work WSJ. Excellent.
sunday morning, sunday music... yow, bill

Labels: globalwarming, healthcare, politics, qotd

1. Nucular
Nice, brief summary of some improvements in nuc-u-lar power that are going on, courtesy my fave "Mad Hedge Fund Trader":


Hey, what the heck do I know.
I just can't understand wallpapering Indiana with wind turbines, when you could get 10x the buck for none of the blight with a couple of nukes.
This is another piece of evidence against the global warming crowd... if carbon emissions were really the planet's doom, then they'd be calling for nukes to replace coal and natgas plants for electricity. But no.

2. God's ETF
There's a new line of ETFs that invest in a particular way, depending on your religions. They're called: www.faithshares.com. They have ETF's for Catholics, Methodists, and generic Christians. Kinda weird, but whatever. I think God would more likely have his 401K in a tech fund.

The commonality between all these specialty funds, like religion or socially-conscious or whatever... higher fees. Amen!

3. Old dog, new chair
Well, I just ordered this new-fangled chair: Balance Ball Chair
Thank you, JC, for the recommendation.

It was only $65... so try something new.
I am sitting in this crappy office chair a lot.
old dog... yow, bill

Labels: fun, globalwarming

This is too delicious to pass up this morning.
It is big "news" when a US senator takes a commercial flight to the bogus global warming conference in Copenhagen.


And one of Tiger's girls protests...

QOTD

"I resent being put in the same category as the other women."
- Holly Sampson, porn star and Tiger girl

Ms. Sampson (right) wishes to rise above the fray because she only had sex with Tiger at his bachelor party.

OK.
Better than parody or sarcasm is when people expose their true character in their own words/actions. I will say, I still have the buxom Ms. Sampson higher on the character scale than Sen. Kerry. But that's an easy call.

I do, however, wonder... who has a greater impact on global warming? The senator or the porn star? Perhaps many, many research $$$ can find the answer to this important question.
he he... yow, bill

Labels: globalwarming, politics, qotd, sports

Two great investment posts... both related to investment by following market prices, rather than media blather, fundies, projections, etc.

QOTD

" Many short-term traders (and not a few individual investors) have missed a good amount of the rally from March because they have held onto longer-term bearish views and failed to separate those views from their reading of the tape."
- Dr. Brett, source

And...

QOTD2

"What's unique about price momentum based ranking system that no other variable claim, is that price cannot diverge from itself. Valuation, earnings estimates, economic fundamentals all have potential to move in the opposite direction of price, but price cannot diverge from itself. As a result, price momentum based ranking systems will lock on to the correct side of the trends. They also tend to get us out after a modest drawdown, thereby allowing profits to run while losses are cut short."
- Ned Davis from the stockbee, source

That stockbee post is nice because he specifically defines what he means by "momentum" in a stock. I'm thinking of ponying up the $150 annual fee to signup with stockbee... lots of good ideas, but I wish he tracked his performance. We'll see.

S&P 500 in 2009:
I'm not good enough to catch a lot of this wave, but I've caught some. I'm working on getting better. Fun and challenging... and hopefully, an alpha edge in the end.
ride the wave... yow, bill

Labels: investing, qotd

1. A Mitch Rapp Christmas

Book: "Executive Power" by Vince Flynn
Review: 4 bill-stars (out of 5)... outstanding!

These Mitch Rapp books are just outstanding guy reading. So great!
Next one's already on order.
I'm snarfing hardcover editions on ebay... about $10 a throw. That's a couple more bucks than a crappy, tiny paperback, but a lot easier to read.

QOTD

"Rapp held his gun up in the palm of his hand for the president to see, and said, 'This is the only thing the zealots understand, sir.'"
- Vince Flynn from "Executive Power"

Hot dam!

2. Economy 2010
What's in store for the economy in 2010?

As an investor, I don't care (well, sort of)... run with the trend and get out on a significant reversal. Of course, in reality, the economy is pretty dang important. It seems inconceivable that we just pop out of our sideswipe with near-depression and just return to near-normal in 2010. But who knows?

Banking analyst Meredith Whitney is a media darling and uber-hot (below)... what a coincidence, eh.
She is also a 2010 doom-sayer.

QOTD2

"[Whitney] says the sand will hit the fan in Q1 2010 as another wave of losses hit the banks, taking the rest of the stock market down with them. There will be no place to hide. There is no credit for medium and small sized borrowers. There has been no bail out for consumers, which account for 70% of American GDP, and there has never been an economic recovery without their participation."
- My fave Mad Hedge Fund Trader blog, source

We shall see.
One thing I've learned over the past year... nobody seemingly knows a dang thing. Experts, bah! In a 10 minute sitting, you can read one expert calling for hyper-inflation, the next a depression, and the third a return to normalcy.
Whatever.

Gold and a couple other holdings are down a bit... watching for a significant break that would signal me to sell. I'm working on fine-tuning all this... working.
buy low... yow, bill

Labels: 4stars, books, investing, myphoto

1. Tiger. Crazy Ambien Sex.
I'll bet a dollar Tiger had some Ambien coursing through his blood, driving that Escalade all willy-nilly.

QOTD

"She told a friend she had crazy Ambien sex with Tiger."
- Tiger tales, source

In that last article Tiger's agent called the Ambien claim "reprehensible."
If I were representing Tiger, I might shy away from the word reprehensible, eh.

Granted I haven't read many articles, but I have yet to see a Tiger article that focuses on him having 3 yo and 9 month-old kids. I know we live in a loosier and goosier society, but jeez... if banging every cocktail waitress you bump into when your new bride is home pregnant or with the kids or both isn't, um, reprehensible, then what is?

Argh.
I thought the National Enquirer was one of the last bastions of real journalism. I guess I'm only left with "The Morning News" for true, hard-hitting journalism.

QOTD2

"In 2007, according to two people familiar with the negotiations, Mr. Woods and his representatives made a deal with American Media, the company that owns the National Enquirer, to quash a story detailing an alleged affair. In exchange, Mr. Woods posed on the cover and did an interview for another American Media property, Men's Fitness, these people say. American Media declined to comment on this issue."
- Sweeping Tiger shenanigans under the rug, How Tiger's Top Man is Managing the Crisis

Ambien will also be Tiger's out, eventually: "Oh, I was addicted to Ambien, so..."
Whatever.

2. Fantasy Football
Punkin win!
I'm the Punkin. Ty is the F-14.
Ty's New Orleans defense had been credited with a TD on a fumble return by the Saint offense (ole Robert Meacham to the right)... then, overnight, Yahoo took it away.

Adding to the fun... this shit made the WSJ this morning:


Punkin are 9-3-1. First place. Sorry Ty.
he he... yow, bill

Labels: fun, qotd, sports

Movie: "Fantastic Mr. Fox"
Review: 4 bill-stars (out of 5)... great!
Different and good.

• Ty and I laughed and laughed
• The critters wears suits and have jobs and lawyers and stuff, but are still wild animals... hard to describe, but it was fun
  
• Tons of stuff for adults in this one as well
• Very positive and politically correct-free

"Fantastic" is a Roald Dahl book, but I haven't read it. Christmas list!

QOTD

"You should probably put your bandit hat on now. Personally, I don't have one, but I modified this tube sock."
"You look good."
"Yeah, I do"
- Fantastic Mr. Fox

"Fantastic" and "Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs" are two of my favorite movies in 2009. They had some similarities of being quirky, positive and full of tasty adult treats.

I wouldn't know Andy Murray the tennis player if he hit me on the head with a racquet, but getting dumped by your hot girlfriend because you play video games too much is pretty funny.


fantastic... yow, bill

PS - Nice tube socks.

Labels: 4stars, fun, movies, qotd

QOTD

"My whole thing is, you're only playing for three hours a day. The least you can do is play hard. You have what, four or five at bats?
OK, it's not difficult to run, to give it a hundred percent. It's effort.
You don't have to have talent for effort."
- Derek Jeter, SI Sportsman of the Year, on running hard to first base

I like Jeter, and that's a money QOTD.
He does seem to try hard... with a respect for the game and those around him.

We just had the Tiger thing. On a smaller scale, LeBron beat the Bull earlier this week and was dancing on the court like a classless clown. Shit, the Cub suck and they still don't try hard.
At least outwardly, it doesn't seem like Jeter's success has spoiled everything for him.
theeeeee yankee win... yow, bill

Labels: qotd, sports

1. Follow the money
I had a physical reaction (stomach turning) to this story and QOTD.


QOTD

"... between 2000 and 2006, Mr. Jones was the recipient (or co-recipient) of some $19 million worth of grants"
- Mr. Jones is director of the Climate Research Institute (CRU), and a lead actor in the Climategate email scandal

$19 million of research $$$ to this fraud.
Barf.

I salute the late Michael Crichton. He called this one in spades in his book "State of Fear". Politicians and scientists require panic, a state of fear, to extract their tolls from society's worker bees. Today's panic du jour is global warming. Tomorrow's?

2. Shopgirl: book and movie
Book: "Shopgirl" by Steve Martin
Review: 3 bill-stars (out of 5)... just OK

Movie: "Shopgirl"
Review: 3 bill-stars (out of 5)... better than just OK

I got the book because the movie was surprisingly good to me... the power of low expectations. Steve Martin's movie career peaked with "The Jerk", then the excellent "Planes, Trains and Automobiles", and hit bottom with a remake of "The Pink Panther", which I believe the army forced Gitmo terrorists to watch as one of their advanced interrogation techniques.

The book was just OK... not as good as the movie. It's a tiny novella. The narration became more and more over the top as the book crept on. It was weird because I was interested in the characters (because of the movie?), but the book's descriptions became less interesting as the pages turned.

3. Investing decade
Tough investing decade, eh.

QOTD2

"The S&P 500 is down 24.5% so far this decade... but only three of the ten S&P 500 sectors have underperformed the index as a whole in the 2000s -- Telecom, Technology, and Financials."
- excellent Bespoke investing blog, source

Here's the accompanying chart for this QOTD:


I think this theme could very well apply to the coming decade as well... focusing investment in the hot sector(s) or country or asset class, rather than owning the market in general.
In attempting to implement this notion, I heart my ETF's.
buy low... yow, bill

Labels: 3stars, books, globalwarming, investing, movies, myphoto, qotd