Two stories from an excellent investment blog: Crossing Wall Street

The core CPI dropped 0.2% last month... first (real) drop in prices since 1982:


What does that mean?
I assume it's a blip... rather than real deflation ahead.

Second story... the US is only 20th in debt/GDP ratio at 96%.

www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2010/02/the_worlds_bigg.html

I still have my copy of "Bankruptcy 1995" from back in the day. I knew that was crap (extrapolate the worst numbers possible out into the future... gasp!), and even though things are worse today, it's still an over-reaction.

That said, it's great to see America reacting BEFORE we become some POS European country.

QOTD

"We'll make a pot of coffee
And you can rest your shoes
And you can tell me them sweet lies
And I'll listen to you
For I'm just a little part of
Of the life you've lived
But I'd rather have a little bit of trouble
Than to never know the love you give"
- "Hello Trouble" by Buck Owens... excellent off the "Crazy Heart" soundtrack

I heart "Crazy Heart".
I gotta go back and change that review to 4 bill-stars. 3 bill-stars... what an idiot!

The soundtrack is 5 bill-stars.
hello bikini trouble... yow, bill

Labels: investing, qotd

1. Solar Calculation
You know that global warming bugs me.
It also bugs me that real information is so hard to get.
Forget about $$$ and practicality and logistics for a second... if we had perfect solar panels with perfect batteries and all, how big a solar panel would we need for your average house?

It looks like the average household uses roughly 1,000 kWh/month; that's "one thousand kilo-watt hours per month". Give each month 30 days and we get about 30 kWh/day consumed. [source]

It looks like the power of the sun in Chicago is roughly 4 kWh/m2/day; that's "Four kilo-watt hours per meter squared per day. [source]

Let's divide, shall we: 30 kWh consumed / 4kWh/m2 = 7.5 m2 or "Seven and a half meters squared". So, a perfect solar panel would have to be 7.5 meters squared to power the average house. But solar panels are only about 20% efficient (source), so you'd need a panel 5x that size to do the job: 35 meters-squared.

That's pretty big. 6 meters x 6 meters.
But let's say efficiency doubles over the next 10 years, and let's say we only want/need to cover half our energy via these panels. That reduces our panel area by 4x to 9 meters-squared, or a 3x3 meter panel. Reasonable.

I'm tired and rambling... the point is solar is close to making sense. Closer than silly windmills. And of course, nuc-ular is better than solar. All this fossil fuel and global warming nonsense is addressed with a modicum on invention, which we are well on way.

Cap and trade and such... taxes and control, not about energy or warming or whatever.

2. Investing
Great QOTD regarding the US and Asia from the Mad Hedge Fund guy... similar to a previous post, but still worthy:

QOTD

"As much as we despise ourselves and wallow in our failures, Asians see us as a bright, shining example for the world. After all, it was our open trade policies and innovation that lifted them out of poverty and destitution. Walk the streets of China, as I have done for nearly four decades, and you feel this."
- Mad Hedge Fund Trader guy, source

And how is your day today?
Well, Eddie Lampert, CEO and majority owner of Sears Holdings, is up about a cool billion $$$ today. A Billion Dollar Day for Eddie
He he.

3. New Year's Eve Book
Book: "Noah's Compass" by Ann Tyler
Review: 4 bill-stars (out of 5)... really good

Such a great treat for me... I found Ann Tyler's new book on New Year's Eve.
Smile.

Ann Tyler is one of my favorite authors, and "Noah's Compass" is pretty typical. Her stories focus on regular people going through pretty much regular stuff... no plot twists with Mitch Rapp or anything. He he.

This was a very enjoyable read: 4- bill-stars.
Ms. Tyler's writing style is so smooth... it just kind of ambled along. No biggie.

I thought Ann Tyler's "hook", Noah's compass, was kind of smarmy. Noah didn't need a compass "because the whole world was underwater"... get it? Meh.
Anyway, here's my favorite QOTD from the book:

QOTD

"Epictetus says that everything has two handles, one by which it can be borne and one by which it cannot. If your brother sins against you, he says, don't take hold of it by the wrong he did you but by the fact that he's your brother. That's how it can be borne."
- Ann Tyler, "Noah's Compass"

Sort of a fancier way of saying, "keep your positivity."
Pick the positive, constructive handle of a thing.
I like it.
positivity... yow, bill

Labels: 4stars, books, globalwarming, investing, qotd

QOTD

"In nearly 200 years of recorded stock-market history, no calendar decade has seen such a dismal performance as the 2000s."
- WSJ today, source

If that weren't enough the WSJ kindly provides fancy graphics to visually display the investing carnage of the 2000's:


OK, I snarfed two of the charts for you (and perpetuity)... this first one is annual rate of return for each decade since flipping 1830. Crap.



The second killer graph add the poison of inflation to the mix. Barf.


Well, we were there. I guess that's saying something.
Also, I hope the 2010's are better. I hope we're not Japan. I hope... oh, never mind.

Let's cheer up with an excellent picture of Sarah Palin.
dreamy... yow, bill

PS - Addendum... hate to wreck the Sarah buzz, but here's Faber's (Ivy Portfolio guy) comparison between the US and Japan. Gulp.

Labels: fun, investing, qotd

Two great investment posts... both related to investment by following market prices, rather than media blather, fundies, projections, etc.

QOTD

" Many short-term traders (and not a few individual investors) have missed a good amount of the rally from March because they have held onto longer-term bearish views and failed to separate those views from their reading of the tape."
- Dr. Brett, source

And...

QOTD2

"What's unique about price momentum based ranking system that no other variable claim, is that price cannot diverge from itself. Valuation, earnings estimates, economic fundamentals all have potential to move in the opposite direction of price, but price cannot diverge from itself. As a result, price momentum based ranking systems will lock on to the correct side of the trends. They also tend to get us out after a modest drawdown, thereby allowing profits to run while losses are cut short."
- Ned Davis from the stockbee, source

That stockbee post is nice because he specifically defines what he means by "momentum" in a stock. I'm thinking of ponying up the $150 annual fee to signup with stockbee... lots of good ideas, but I wish he tracked his performance. We'll see.

S&P 500 in 2009:
I'm not good enough to catch a lot of this wave, but I've caught some. I'm working on getting better. Fun and challenging... and hopefully, an alpha edge in the end.
ride the wave... yow, bill

Labels: investing, qotd

1. A Mitch Rapp Christmas

Book: "Executive Power" by Vince Flynn
Review: 4 bill-stars (out of 5)... outstanding!

These Mitch Rapp books are just outstanding guy reading. So great!
Next one's already on order.
I'm snarfing hardcover editions on ebay... about $10 a throw. That's a couple more bucks than a crappy, tiny paperback, but a lot easier to read.

QOTD

"Rapp held his gun up in the palm of his hand for the president to see, and said, 'This is the only thing the zealots understand, sir.'"
- Vince Flynn from "Executive Power"

Hot dam!

2. Economy 2010
What's in store for the economy in 2010?

As an investor, I don't care (well, sort of)... run with the trend and get out on a significant reversal. Of course, in reality, the economy is pretty dang important. It seems inconceivable that we just pop out of our sideswipe with near-depression and just return to near-normal in 2010. But who knows?

Banking analyst Meredith Whitney is a media darling and uber-hot (below)... what a coincidence, eh.
She is also a 2010 doom-sayer.

QOTD2

"[Whitney] says the sand will hit the fan in Q1 2010 as another wave of losses hit the banks, taking the rest of the stock market down with them. There will be no place to hide. There is no credit for medium and small sized borrowers. There has been no bail out for consumers, which account for 70% of American GDP, and there has never been an economic recovery without their participation."
- My fave Mad Hedge Fund Trader blog, source

We shall see.
One thing I've learned over the past year... nobody seemingly knows a dang thing. Experts, bah! In a 10 minute sitting, you can read one expert calling for hyper-inflation, the next a depression, and the third a return to normalcy.
Whatever.

Gold and a couple other holdings are down a bit... watching for a significant break that would signal me to sell. I'm working on fine-tuning all this... working.
buy low... yow, bill

Labels: 4stars, books, investing, myphoto

1. Follow the money
I had a physical reaction (stomach turning) to this story and QOTD.


QOTD

"... between 2000 and 2006, Mr. Jones was the recipient (or co-recipient) of some $19 million worth of grants"
- Mr. Jones is director of the Climate Research Institute (CRU), and a lead actor in the Climategate email scandal

$19 million of research $$$ to this fraud.
Barf.

I salute the late Michael Crichton. He called this one in spades in his book "State of Fear". Politicians and scientists require panic, a state of fear, to extract their tolls from society's worker bees. Today's panic du jour is global warming. Tomorrow's?

2. Shopgirl: book and movie
Book: "Shopgirl" by Steve Martin
Review: 3 bill-stars (out of 5)... just OK

Movie: "Shopgirl"
Review: 3 bill-stars (out of 5)... better than just OK

I got the book because the movie was surprisingly good to me... the power of low expectations. Steve Martin's movie career peaked with "The Jerk", then the excellent "Planes, Trains and Automobiles", and hit bottom with a remake of "The Pink Panther", which I believe the army forced Gitmo terrorists to watch as one of their advanced interrogation techniques.

The book was just OK... not as good as the movie. It's a tiny novella. The narration became more and more over the top as the book crept on. It was weird because I was interested in the characters (because of the movie?), but the book's descriptions became less interesting as the pages turned.

3. Investing decade
Tough investing decade, eh.

QOTD2

"The S&P 500 is down 24.5% so far this decade... but only three of the ten S&P 500 sectors have underperformed the index as a whole in the 2000s -- Telecom, Technology, and Financials."
- excellent Bespoke investing blog, source

Here's the accompanying chart for this QOTD:


I think this theme could very well apply to the coming decade as well... focusing investment in the hot sector(s) or country or asset class, rather than owning the market in general.
In attempting to implement this notion, I heart my ETF's.
buy low... yow, bill

Labels: 3stars, books, globalwarming, investing, movies, myphoto, qotd

QOTD

"I'm so tired, I haven't slept a wink
I'm so tired, my mind is on the blink
I wonder should I get up, and fix myself a drink
No, no, no"
- The Beatles, "I'm So Tired"

I heart www.stockcharts.com

Here's 3 years of S&P 500 ($SPX) for you:

I drew that blue line in the middle... at 1,125.
Here's the math:

• The $SPX high was $1,575 in Oct 2007
• The $SPX low was $675 in Mar 2009
• That's a 900 point dip in $SPX.
• My 1,125 line marks a recovery of half of our 900 point (vomit-inducing) drop.
  

So, huzzah to 1,125 on $SPX... and beyond!

QOTD2

"I'm so tired, I'm feeling so upset
Although I'm so tired, I'll have another cigarette
And curse Sir Walter Raleigh
He was such a stupid git"
- The Beatles, "I'm So Tired"

pandora fun... yow, bill

PS - Swear to God... found this (grizzly) bear post a couple hours after my post. He says the halfway recovery point is as high as we go, for a long, long time or forever or something.

QOTD3

[hitting this halfway point] "...means if this was the short term top, then it was the intermediate and long term top, probably a top we may not see in our life times."
- Atilla the xtrends bear, source

We shall see.
Fundamental difference with me... I'm staying with the trend until it breaks.
When the trend breaks, I'll give back some dough, and then sit in cash or short or something.
Until then, I'm comfy, cozy long.

Labels: investing, qotd

QOTD

"My attitude is, that since you are paying my salary as taxpayers, you should have health care that is at least as good as mine."
- President Obama, source

Um, actually President Obama, none of Medicare/Medicaid recipients will have health care as good as you and the members of Congress... your vaunted "public option" excludes your health insurance plan or the plan of any other federal employees. Funny how that works out.

Faker.

Bull Market Bikini
I should stop reading bear market blogs, but it's pretty much for entertainment purposes only. This is a classic whining, blathering post at one of them: The Distressing Tally. That Slope of Hope blog is like so many other bear blog offerings: when the market goes up, don't buy... just bitch about it. I prefer to ride the wave... up or down.

We're heading up, so I humbly present a bull market bikini.
sell higher... yow, bill

PS - Have you seen this crazy shit? I heard about these fancy, custom mouthguards watching some NFL game on the tube. What are these guys promising if you use their mouthguard? Oh just... "immediate improvement in posture, range of motion, flexibility, balance, and strength". OK.

Labels: fun, healthcare, investing, politics, qotd

Go Pacers!


No, I'm not a Pacer fan. I'm a Jarin fan: Jarin the cheerleader and more!

1. Little Story

QOTD

Needless military spending is "an affront to the American people and to our troops"
- President Obama on cutting the defense budget, source

That QOTD source is a little AP story.
Tiny, little story.
But this little story reveals so much of the crap that's out there. Continue:

1. Dear President Obama... soft on crime, weak on defense. Cha!
   
2. And dear President Obama, aren't you the one still dithering on what's going to happen in Afghanistan, so what does this military budget mean outside of that decision?
3. And President Obama sneaks BS "hate crimes" nonsense in the budget. Nice transparency there, hope & change.
   
4. Of course, the POS journalism doesn't give a percentage for the budget or "cuts" or anything.
   

2. Looking Up
GDP is up 3.5% in Q3 2009, so things looking up:


And unemployment claims are leveling off.


If it works, I like it.
If Bernanke, Paulson, Geithner and everybody else on the planet say the sky is falling, then it's falling.
So far so good to these boys and President Obama on the acronym nonsense (TARP, TALF, etc) and stimulus.
And yes, I'm as long as I can get today. Woot!
peace... yow, bill
PS - Raptor cheerleaders... um, you dropped something. He he!

Labels: fun, investing, politics, qotd

I like this chart... just to give you an idea of how weird these deflationary times are. We've had the first bout of deflation of any level since the 50's. Click on it for a readable biggie:


Nice QOTD from that site too...

QOTD

"The September 2009 Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U) is 215.969. The annualized inflation rate computed from this number is -1.29%, which marks the seventh consecutive month of deflation."
- dshort stats

7th consecutive month of deflation. Dop.
peace... yow, bill

Labels: investing, qotd

1. Economy Stupid or Stupid Economy
You may have read that I heart business.
Here's a government thing I like: www.recovery.gov
This is a website that tries to detail the spending from President Obama's $787B stimulus bill.

The most interesting stat is how little money has been spent so far. Of the $787B total, only about $170B has been spent or roughly 20%. Bet your ass that most of the remaining 80% will be spent during the election year with mucho fanfare about government largess.

It's also interesting that Congress refuses to provide a similar facility for the health care bill. Even a 72 hour peek has been voted down.

QOTD

"We are moving in the right direction"
- President Obama, Oct 14 2009 (source)

The stock market agrees with President Obama, clearly. I think recovery is the most likely outcome, at least some form of recovery. The investing answer, IMHO, is to ride the wave with tight stops if things turn bad.

The interesting question comes, however, if we are not heading in the right direction. Dial ahead 12 months to Oct 2010... if unemployment is still around 10% in a year and the Dow is lingering at or below 10,000... will America hold President Obama and/or the dem Congress accountable for the situation?

You would think so, but who knows these days.

2. Book Review
Book: "Await Your Reply" by Dan Chaon
Review: 2 bill-stars (out of 5)... meh.

It was close, but I can't recommend it.
It's a plot book with the snarky plot twists and the 2-D characters.
If you like the snarkiness, it's OK. It wasn't worth it for me.

Onward and upward.
yow, bill

Labels: 2stars, books, investing, politics, qotd

1. Yankee
First, for the Yankee fan who has everything: Authentic Yankee Grass Seed

2. So many Bill Kriegers
Go:

• www.cheese-louise.com - This is a cheese shop blog in Walla Walla Washington run by Bill Krieger. I am honored to be his first blog "follower". Maybe I'll scam some cheese out of the deal. If I could live anywhere but Naperville, it'd have to be Walla Walla... not the city, the name.
  
• www.billkrieger.com - This looks like your standard crappy personal web page... like mine. But this Bill Krieger (William W.) bears the scarlet "U" of the web page universe: "Under Construction". Dop.

3. Plain, old DVD
I bought me some "Watchmen" DVD at Best Buy.
And I smiled.

Inside you get a $10 coupon (right) off your purchase of a "better" DVD coming out in December. I know this infuriates some people.
It makes me smile.

1. I'm over it... I can count on one hand the number of DVD's where I actually watched the extra stuff. So, I'm over that phase and only purchase the stripped down (usually $10-$12 now) version.
2. If you're not over it... Relax and buy the fancy DVD. It's nice to choose. If it pisses you off, then pass (or rent it if you can find an open video store), but don't whine.

I'll pass on the blu-ray nonsense too... I can't tell the dang difference.

Watchmen... great book and movie.
peace... yow, bill

PS - The Dow crossed 10,000 today. The first time it did that was Spring 1999 (source). Dop.
Here's 10 years of Dow... click on it for the goodness:

Labels: fun, investing

QOTD

"What counts more than luck is determination and perseverance.
If the talent is there, it will come through.
Don't be too impatient."
- ???

Kind of a blah blah blah QOTD. Preachy. Until you see who said it.

Investing: The recent past
This excellent graph from the Mad Hedge Fund Trader, originally Bespoke Investment Group:



For those of you keeping score, that's:

• $63 trillion market cap of world equities at the peak
• $25 trillion at the bottom (a loss of $48 (fucking) trillion worldwide)
• Now at $43 trillion and rising
  

Amazing. Simply amazing.
Or as the Mad Hedge Fund Guy more eloquently says, "This is wealth destruction of a truly Biblical proportions."

Investments: The near future
I am currently accepting inquiries for a limited number of preferred investors (sort of like Jew-el's Preferred Card) in an exciting new opportunity that will probably be the next "thing" on the Internet.

Obviously, I can't go into too much detail, but basically I'm working on the next Twitter. Here's the back of the envelope:

1. We all know the problem with Twitter: 140 character messages are too long to read and no graphics. Plus, the past perfect tense of "tweet" is, um, problematic.
   
2. My solution is www.blather.com. I expect Blather to pretty much displace Twitter as "the" next mode of communication for young people and suspended football players around the globe.
3. Blather will replace Twitter. "Blah-ing" will replace "tweet-ing". The kids will say, "He just blah'ed me that he'll be 15 minutes late" or, "His blather stream is my favorite." Of course, celebrity blathers will be the rage. You don't have to spell or use text to blather; this will be a strong draw to many TV, movie and sports idols.
4. Instead of 140 character messages, Blather will allow blah-ers to send up to 16 emoticon images to other users following their Blather stream. For example, the 3 emoticons to the right say "I have squirted lemon juice in my eye. It hurts. Oh, now I'm okay".
   

You know the drill. Offer not available in Tennessee. Please send checks. Not cash.
blah blah blah... yow, bill

PS - QOTD by Fred Astaire. When Fred Astaire hands down some advice on succeeding, I listen. I wonder how many people have never seen Fred Astaire dance. Or Michael Jordan play basketball. Or the NY or Chicago symphony. I'm talking the best of the best.

Labels: investing, qotd

Kids in Fantasy Football
Really fun story about kids in fantasy football leagues from Rob the Ranter:


We have kids in our fantasy baseball and football league. They do a really great job, and we have a blast. I'd point you to our league so you can see, but stupid Yahoo will only let members see it. Now, why Yahoo wants to prevent people from seeing the stupid ads that support all this stuff in the first place, I don't know. It's a brain twizzler.

I'd thank Rob T for his contribution, but I can't. I'm actually in the midst of a blogger blood feud with Rob T because he recently referred to "Leaving Las Vegas" as a "decent" film. Decent. Decent? I know I should defer to Rob T (with Aurora, IL being the film capital of the free world and all), but LLV is better than decent. One of the best metaphors for addiction, fun story, great performances, and Elizabeth Shue putting out for you. Decent! Dang. I demand retribution!

He he.
Why do I think I'm so funny... when I know I'm not.
Oh yeah , self-delusion.
Forgot.

Investing in China
One of my favorite investing blogs is the Mad Hedge Fund Trader. I don't always agree with the guy, but he's rational and reasonable... a hurdle many of these blogs cannot, um, hurdle.

Here's an interesting post on China/Asia: Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Stuff I liked from the post:

1. We are still far ahead of China... "Power is not shifting from West to East; Asia is just lifting itself off the mat, with per capita GDP only at $5,800, compared to $48,000 in the US."
   
2. Future global power will be more diffuse... "We are simply moving from a unipolar to a multipolar world. China is not going to dominate the world, or even Asia, where there is a long history of regional rivalries and wars. China can’t even control China, where recessions lead to revolutions, and 30% of the country, Tibet and the Uighurs, want to secede."
3. We need a new model/relationship with China longer-term... "All of Asia’s progress to date has been built on selling to the US market. Take us out, and they’re nowhere. With enormous resource, environmental, and demographic challenges constraining growth, Asia is not replacing the US anytime soon."
4. China's system is still in its infancy... "There is no miracle form of Asian capitalism; impoverished, younger populations are simply forced to save more because there is no social safety net. Ever heard of a Chinese unemployment office?"
5. The media sucks (he he)... "The press often touts the 600,000 engineers that China graduates, joined by 350,000 in India. In fact, 90% of these are only educated to a trade school standard. Asia only has one world class school, the University of Tokyo."
   

In my lifetime, this is the third narrative foreboding the end of the United States... the first two were Russia and Japan. So now, China and Asia are gong to kick our ass. Maybe. Could be. But I'm betting on the USA until we stop competing... not because we are competing. Make sense?

Investing in China and all emerging markets is the place to be, but it's neck-wrenching volatile... up and down 10% in a flash.

I'll leave you with QOTD from that post.

QOTD

"As much as we despise ourselves and wallow in our failures, Asians see us as a bright, shining example for the world. After all, it was our open trade policies and innovation that lifted them out of poverty and destitution. Walk the streets of China, as I have done for nearly four decades, and you feel this."
- Mad Hedge Fund Trader, source

A bright shining example for the world... Yup.
usa... yow, bill

PS - Our bikini lead over China remains formidable... as evidenced by Miss China over there. She's got my runner tan with the half-tanned legs. Dop.

PPS - Add this one to your favorites or delicious or whatever. I didn't go this year, but next? Maybe with Rob T if we're ever on speaking terms again. He he. Dammit. LOL.

Labels: fun, investing, myphoto, politics, qotd

Bass solo... percussion... keyboard...

QOTD

"Well my Daddy sent a message
'Bout the whiskers on my chin
Never had no problem
Cause I always paid the rent"
- Chicago, "I'm a Man"

Nice chart... 10 year performance by asset class... Aug 1999 - 2009:


Source: www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/09/10-year-asset-class-returns


From "Pump Up The Volume", but left off the soundtrack...

"I like it here."
he he... yow, bill

PS - Daddy, Money, Daddy. Kismet.

Labels: investing, music, qotd, video

S&P 500 at 1065. Yow!
A little investment blather as the market makes even higher highs for the year.

See the chart below... the spread between junk bonds and treasuries is at the same level as before the market crash of Sep/Oct last year. This means people aren't afraid of the planet going out of business any more. This is good.


Some of the financial blogs I troll have a decidedly bearish tilt. Cough. Here's a funny exchange I grabbed where a chap named "Sol" seems to lost a chunk of change shorting this bull market. Funny.

A little tech aside... the hottest book this year is "The Lost Symbol" by Dan Brown. I can't for the life of me figure out why he didn't just call his new book "The DaVinci Code 2" or something equally obvious. Anyway, the interesting techie thing is that, on Amazon, the Kindle version is outselling the hardcopy version (source). Another gray hair just popped out of my skull. He he.

QOTD

"Stealth paneling is incredibly difficult to find"
- Captain Freedom shopping at Home Depot, remodeling his secret HQ

Go market, go!
peace... yow, bill

Labels: investing, qotd, technology

80 years ago...

The great bull market peaked 80 years ago yesterday -- September 3, 1929. The Dow closed at 381.17. The crash didn't come until October. Three years later, the Dow was down to 41.22.

The Dow didn't make a new high until November 23, 1954.

- Source: www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2009/09/80_years_ago.html

No Great Depression 2 for us though. Hopefully.
How's this unemployment curve treating ya?

Source: http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/bespoke/2009/09/non-farm-payrolls-at-best-levels-since-lehman-bankruptcy.html

I'll have to do a Bill-investment post one of these days... what I've learned over the past year.
My end of the market-day trades are a-calling!
invest this... yow, bill

PS - Another crappy, lyrical QOTD

"I wanna tell everybody everybody
That you're so much more
Than they've ever even seen before

And I wanna tell everybody everybody
If they touched your hand
Then they'd never want to let you go"
- Sister Hazel, "Everybody"

Labels: investing, myphoto, qotd

QOTD

"No offense guys and girls, but I think WE are the sheep getting slaughtered."
- Blog reader comment to this post Sheep Gets Slaughtered

That blog post comes from xTrends, a mega-bearish investing blog. This mega-bear blog phenomenon, as you might well have guessed, is very popular these days. There are usually two premises:

1. The world (more specifically, the US) is going to hell in a handbasket, and
   
2. Anyone who hints at disagreement with this opinion is an idiot... "bull-tard" is the unflattering term that is often used
   

Another of these perma-bears is Slope of Hope, though it's slightly less grating than xTrends.

I'm a newbie active investor or trader, but one thing I've learned... gol dang, don't dig in. If the market says you're wrong, then you're wrong. Wait to live another day. If the market wants to go up, get long, baby! If the market wants to go down, then short the sucker and roll with it.

The best investing blog I've come across is MarketSci at marketsci.wordpress.com. Michael Stokes has a brilliant, independently-verified record, and his posts are fun and analytical. MarketSci doesn't care whether we're heading down to a watery, deflationary grave or heading as to a nirvana-inducing high... Michael just wants to make money, either direction. I pay cash money to get MarketSci's daily trading signal on a couple of algorithms.... and I'm happy as a clam!

My goal is to someday be as good as Michael, or almost. We shall see. At this point, at least my studies have led me to his blog and (excellent) investing service... and beyond!
buy low... yow, bill

PS - a little parting art shot...

Labels: fun, investing, qotd

Marching Illini
I'm an alum of the University of Illinois Marching Illini: www.illinoisalumniband.org.
The real/current Marching Illini are at: http://bands.illinois.edu/MI/

What a great time and great memories... here are two of my fave photos of me and Gram from 1980, click to see a nice "big" 3x5 photo from back in the day:

...
These last two, 1980 again, are the band running out of the tunnel to start our pregame, and then our "UI" formation at the end of pregame.

...

Funny how my college photos look like some archival restoration project from the history channel or something. NOT! He he.

QOTD

"Ungawa!"
- Marching Illini at attention

Healthy Bribes
A better health care idea: rewarding people for healthy behaviors. Forbes has a nice story.


Of course, with nabobs at the wheel, this so quickly gets flipped into punishing and controlling people... it's tough to design a solution when the administrators of said solution are so, well, lame.

As for following the European, socialist model...

QOTD

"I like Europe as well as anyone - as a place to drink delicious coffee and loaf around."
- Rich Karlgaard, Forbes op-ed

China Plays
Following the Forbes motif here, a nice, short story on investing in China, China Rocks.
ETF plays related, directly and indirectly, to China:

• CUT - Global Timber index, betting on China's continued demand for paper/wood resources.
• TAO - China real estate
• FXI - the most popular direct China play... the author doesn't like this one because of its 50% reliance on financials
• PGJ - another China play that hold US stock that derive the majority of their revenue from China... the author likes these better than FXI
• PCY - emerging market bonds
  

ungawa... yow, bill

Labels: fun, healthcare, investing, qotd

Here's the money, no pun...


The source for this chart is this dude: Stephen V. Muro
He argues (me too) that we broke the seal on $80, and we're going back through again soon. This is good (short-term) for the stock market.

If your country (well ours, actually) devalues the currency, then what to do?
I mean what can you do that's not too cooky... like buy Krugerands or something like that.
Well, I'm not quite sure.

• Buy commodity ETFs... or at least make them a part of your portfolio
• Buy international ETFs... but I'm not sure if their returns are in $$$ or local currency
• Buy stocks... the stock market will go up, but probably not as much as you lose in your dollars
• Sell bonds/cash... this is the pariah in a dollar meltdown

Or, just open a bikini-themed coffee shop in Georgia and relax about all this nonsense:

QOTD

"I’ve had eight people contact me about franchising."
- Josh McClain, owner Bikini Beani Coffee and Drink Hut

I love that guy.
he he... yow, bill

Labels: fun, investing

Here's a fun Bill-photo from Lincoln Park Zoo yesterday... ROAR!

QOTD

"I am dumbfounded that the representatives of a nation whose economic fortunes—more than that, whose fundamental culture and identity—are entwined with the spirit of entrepreneurship can contemplate so carelessly wrecking the structure of incentives which have served us so well and for so long."
- Rita Gunther McGrath, WSJ letter to the editor, source

"Our fundamental culture and identity"... well written, Rita baby.
Google "rita baby bikini"

Dang, how about this great idea... defer capital gains in mutual funds until people sell their shares: Tax Changes Urged For Mutual Funds

This is the kind of reform that spurs investment, savings, and growth. Cha!
peace out... yow, bill

PS - OK, my tiger was actually yawning, not roaring, but it looks good.

Labels: investing, politics, qotd

QOTD

"Rent, don’t own stocks."
- The Mad Hedge Fund Trader, source

I like this Mad guy (TMHFT). I don't agree with all his politics, but he's got some great investing advice... one of the best blogs I follow.

And yes, TMHFT, I'm working every day to become a good renter of stocks. Huzzah!

Politics
Prince Charles, The Pope, special surtaxes on the wealthy to pay for socialized health care, 10% unemployment, CA bankrupt... my, my, how the worm turns.

Sarah Palin quit as AK governor... basically claiming harassment. She counts 19 separate bogus ethics complaints as her proof (source). I believe her; the left is not anchored by ethics. But that's the price of admission, baby. I hope she cashes in and raises her family.

Good WSJ op-ed today: Europe Should Hope Obama Fails
The point: Europe has been buoyed by American growth via capitalism.

QOTD2

"Bull markets move in perfect 18 year cycles, and we are only half way through a generational washout in equity ownership that started in 2000. “Buy and Hold” is dead. An S&P 500 trading around a 13 multiple means will be stuck in a 650-950 range for years, and that’s being generous."
- TMHFT again

I'm heading out now to Dean's Dugout... buy some cards for Ty. Our Naperville Cub got bounced from the playoffs last night; I couldn't be prouder of the boy. Ty faced this monster of a mutant 12 year-old pitcher in the 4th inning. This kid was the hardest thrower we've seen all season. Ty got a good foul ball off the kid, and eventually struck out, but he battled. He stuck his nose right in there... 10 years old and keeping that ass right in the box and taking his hack. Man, that's something. Like I said... couldn't be prouder.

cub win... yow, bill

Labels: investing, politics, qotd, sports

Looks like the Market is heading south again. How far? We shall see.

QOTD

“We are almost two years into a financial and economic crisis which is still far from over. We cannot even say that we are past the worst or that the way out of the woods is clear.”
- HSBC (a big bank) CEO Stephen Green, source

Marathon times are up this year... unemployed people are training more: Fast Times for Jobless Runners. This is a great shot of the (crowded) Boston Marathon:

I missed all the Michael Jackson nonsense. Yeah.
The WSJ posted the top 10 TV shows this week: America's Got Talent, NCIS, Mentalist, CSI, Two and a Half Men, 60 Minutes.
I don't watch any of these... except the occasional "2 1/2 Men" rerun late at night. Yeah, again.

Finally, a photo I actually took myself. This contribution comes, in beautiful synchronicity, from a pickup truck in the parking lot of a bowling alley:
Left to right: one of those "don't give me a ticket, I support the po-lice" stickers, Dale Earnhart, Nascar, Jesus rules, and Dale Earnhart.
That about covers it.
yee-haw... yow, bill

Labels: investing, politics, qotd