1. Bill Awards
Zero Academy Awards time for me last night.
And the Oscar goes to... www.oscars.org/awards/academyawards/82/nominees.html

Of the "Best Picture" nominees that I saw, here's my ranking:

1. "Up in the Air" 4 bill-stars
2. "District 9" 4 bill-stars
3. "Up" 3 bill-stars (barely)
   
4. "Avatar" 2 bill-stars (barely)
   

Of course, "Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs" was a 5 bill-star effort, so there. Ha!

I'm glad "The Dude" won for Best Actor, and "Crazy Heart" won best song with "The Weary Kind". Excellent!

2. Forbes Shape

QOTD

"One state retiree, 49 years old, paid, over the course of his entire career, a total of $124,000 toward his retirement pension and health benefits. What will we pay him? $3.3 million in pension payments over his life and nearly $500,000 for health care benefits--a total of $3.8 million on a $120,000 investment. Is that fair?"
- Chris Christie, gov of New Jersey, source

Steve Forbes' outstanding article on the New Jersey state government budget and what new governor, Chris Christie, is doing to fix it.


Here's the 2nd (stupefying) anecdote from the article.

QOTD2

"A retired teacher paid $62,000 toward her pension and nothing, yes nothing, for full family medical, dental and vision coverage over her entire career. What will we pay her? $1.4 million in pension benefits and another $215,000 in health care benefit premiums over her lifetime. Is it 'fair' for all of us and our children to have to pay for this excess?"
- Gov Christie on Jersey budget woes

Christie uses the term "fair".
I dislike it.

1. These teachers and state employees just signed up for the deal they were offered.
   
2. The term is inflammatory, only used to appeal to the emotions.
   

Of course, fair/unfair/whatever are the modus operandi of the left... but to get things fixed in Jersey, maybe it's worth using this crappy tactic.

This is the same setup we find in many programs: social security, medicare, etc.
Many (most) people get more out than they put in, but the price is risk... you're name isn't on the money, so some pol some day might come saying that your deal is not "fair".

OK, last QOTD from Crazy Heart's winning song.

QOTD3

"And this ain't no place
To fall behind
Pick up your crazy heart
And give it one more try"
- "Weary Kind" lyrics from "Crazy Heart"

weary kind... yow, bill

Labels: movies, myphoto, politics, qotd

1. Intentionally Funny
Funny satire by Christopher Buckley offering some new tax ideas to the Obama administration.


My fave: taxing non-smokers. He he!



Just as funny, but unintentionally so:

Did you catch those stats?

• Latinos own 6.8% of all US business, but have received only 1.6% of the Obama stimulus kitty.
• Blacks own 5.2% of all businesses, but have gotten only 1.1%.
  

Nice going, President Obama.
funny... yow, bill

Labels: fun, myphoto, politics

1. A Mitch Rapp Christmas

Book: "Executive Power" by Vince Flynn
Review: 4 bill-stars (out of 5)... outstanding!

These Mitch Rapp books are just outstanding guy reading. So great!
Next one's already on order.
I'm snarfing hardcover editions on ebay... about $10 a throw. That's a couple more bucks than a crappy, tiny paperback, but a lot easier to read.

QOTD

"Rapp held his gun up in the palm of his hand for the president to see, and said, 'This is the only thing the zealots understand, sir.'"
- Vince Flynn from "Executive Power"

Hot dam!

2. Economy 2010
What's in store for the economy in 2010?

As an investor, I don't care (well, sort of)... run with the trend and get out on a significant reversal. Of course, in reality, the economy is pretty dang important. It seems inconceivable that we just pop out of our sideswipe with near-depression and just return to near-normal in 2010. But who knows?

Banking analyst Meredith Whitney is a media darling and uber-hot (below)... what a coincidence, eh.
She is also a 2010 doom-sayer.

QOTD2

"[Whitney] says the sand will hit the fan in Q1 2010 as another wave of losses hit the banks, taking the rest of the stock market down with them. There will be no place to hide. There is no credit for medium and small sized borrowers. There has been no bail out for consumers, which account for 70% of American GDP, and there has never been an economic recovery without their participation."
- My fave Mad Hedge Fund Trader blog, source

We shall see.
One thing I've learned over the past year... nobody seemingly knows a dang thing. Experts, bah! In a 10 minute sitting, you can read one expert calling for hyper-inflation, the next a depression, and the third a return to normalcy.
Whatever.

Gold and a couple other holdings are down a bit... watching for a significant break that would signal me to sell. I'm working on fine-tuning all this... working.
buy low... yow, bill

Labels: 4stars, books, investing, myphoto

1. Follow the money
I had a physical reaction (stomach turning) to this story and QOTD.


QOTD

"... between 2000 and 2006, Mr. Jones was the recipient (or co-recipient) of some $19 million worth of grants"
- Mr. Jones is director of the Climate Research Institute (CRU), and a lead actor in the Climategate email scandal

$19 million of research $$$ to this fraud.
Barf.

I salute the late Michael Crichton. He called this one in spades in his book "State of Fear". Politicians and scientists require panic, a state of fear, to extract their tolls from society's worker bees. Today's panic du jour is global warming. Tomorrow's?

2. Shopgirl: book and movie
Book: "Shopgirl" by Steve Martin
Review: 3 bill-stars (out of 5)... just OK

Movie: "Shopgirl"
Review: 3 bill-stars (out of 5)... better than just OK

I got the book because the movie was surprisingly good to me... the power of low expectations. Steve Martin's movie career peaked with "The Jerk", then the excellent "Planes, Trains and Automobiles", and hit bottom with a remake of "The Pink Panther", which I believe the army forced Gitmo terrorists to watch as one of their advanced interrogation techniques.

The book was just OK... not as good as the movie. It's a tiny novella. The narration became more and more over the top as the book crept on. It was weird because I was interested in the characters (because of the movie?), but the book's descriptions became less interesting as the pages turned.

3. Investing decade
Tough investing decade, eh.

QOTD2

"The S&P 500 is down 24.5% so far this decade... but only three of the ten S&P 500 sectors have underperformed the index as a whole in the 2000s -- Telecom, Technology, and Financials."
- excellent Bespoke investing blog, source

Here's the accompanying chart for this QOTD:


I think this theme could very well apply to the coming decade as well... focusing investment in the hot sector(s) or country or asset class, rather than owning the market in general.
In attempting to implement this notion, I heart my ETF's.
buy low... yow, bill

Labels: 3stars, books, globalwarming, investing, movies, myphoto, qotd

A good article on the state of the Naperville castle market:

A Tale of Two Housing Markets: No Recovery at the High End

Define a "castle" as a Naperville house listed for $1M or more... stats list:

• 132 of 844 Naperville houses for sale are castles
  
• Castles have been on the market an average of > 500 days
• Only 10 of 174 contracts pending are for castles
  
• Only 28 castles have sold YTD

And the cherry on top... 23 mega-castles are listing for > $2M, only 1 of those has sold YTD
Yikes.


Book: "Skylight Confessions" by Alice Hoffman
Review: 3 bill-stars (out of 5)... OK

OK, interesting and all... but very girlie.
not a girl... yow, bill

PS - Tiger Woods with this repellent, sloppy brunette. Oh, brother.
www.nationalenquirer.com/tiger_woods_cheating_rachel_uchitel_exposed_source/celebrity/67747

Labels: 3stars, books, fun, myphoto

Nerd definition, source: http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/nerd

1. a stupid, irritating, ineffectual, or unattractive person.
2. an intelligent but single-minded person obsessed with a nonsocial hobby or pursuit: a computer nerd.

A little more elegant, descriptive definition...

QOTD

"... smart at school and dumb on the bus"
- description of a nerd in "The Third Option" by Vince Flynn

Nice.

Speaking of nerds... here's a fun article describing a supercomputer coming in the not-so-distant future:


QOTD2

"...the next milestone now getting attention from planners is something that can reach an exaflop, or a million trillion calculations per second, (one quintillion)"
- 2018 goal, source

Exaflop. Quintillion. Excellent.
dumb on the bus... yow, bill

Labels: fun, myphoto, qotd, technology

Argh, my head.
Mr. Spock over here doesn't like direct contradiction.
He he.

1. First and most important
Why are there still crazy, fucked-up places in the world without water or basic sanitation?
All these foundations and charities and organizations, and we can't build a well somewhere?
Well, we are on the verge of diverting trillions of $ away from helping people and to global warming.

QOTD

"Getting basic sanitation and safe drinking water to the three billion people around the world who do not have it now would cost nearly $4 billion a year. By contrast, cuts in global carbon emissions that aim to limit global temperature increases to less than two degrees Celsius over the next century would cost $40 trillion a year by 2100."
- Bjorn Lomborg, source

I heart Lomborg: Global Warming as Seen from Bangladesh

2. Tough Economic Times
What a bear market for the last 9 years. Argh.

QOTD2
"U.S. companies' IPO activity has so badly lagged behind the pace of stock delistings in the past decade that the number of publicly traded businesses has dropped 39% over the past 11 years"
- WSJ today, source

The number of publicly listed companies peaked in 1997 at 8,823. Now, it's at 5,401. Eee-yikes: Great Depression of Listings

I wonder if President Obama's tax cuts and vast increase of fed spending will help this in the future. Yikes, again.

3. Tough Economic Times?
Things are tough and yet people scoop up the new (expensive) shit like it's going out of style.

QOTD3

"Demand is so strong for the Nook that Barnes & Noble has begun telling new customers not to expect delivery of the soon-to-be-released e-reader until the second week of December."
- The Nook is B&N's flavor of the Kindle, source

10% unemployment and people a lining up for B&N's latest POS gadget.
I can't figure it out.

4. My head
Two really big head-squeezers:

1. Health care - The House passes a health care bill that is the worst legislation I can recall in my lifetime. Gibberish. Cross our fingers on the Senate. Dop. Save your money people... or suffer bureaucratic fools deciding your medical treatment.
2. Muslims terrorists - On this Muslim loser who killed 13 people at the military base... I read a fucking toxic article with quotes about how shithead didn't feel warm and fuzzy because he's a Muslim. I am unaware of 13 Muslims killed in the US because they were Muslim.
   

Commenting on these two is pointless. If you can't follow along with... ah, forget it.

The biggest contradiction of all, I reckon, is the contrast between all-good personal life (what a great weekend!) and the all-fucked-up-all-the-time public existence you hear about. I can't figger that one out at all.
peace... yow, bill

Labels: globalwarming, myphoto, politics, qotd

I like the photo, and yeah, Ty and I were there... triple OT Bull 128-127 playoff win over the Celtics. Boxscore.
Awesome!

1. US = Best Health Care
One of the underpinnings of the health care reform debate is that our system is a shambles and in CRISIS. You've probably seen or heard "studies" about how low our system is ranked compared to France and Canada and blah blah blah. Never did sound right, did it?

Huzzah. It ain't. Here's a chart for you:

Source: Ill-Conceived Ranking Makes for Unhealthy Debate

The author of the (excellent) article makes two great points:

1. You take spending out of the equation and huzzah, the US health care system ranks among the highest in the world.
2. The ranking is largely "ridiculous"... filled with made-up numbers and other variables that are cultural or due to other factors. Infant mortality is an example of this. Is our infant mortality rate higher because of faulty health care or because of poor conditions and education in inner cities.

Then 2+2... cost is the key. And how do you reduce the cost of health care? You sure as shit don't throw more people into Medicare/Medicaid! Competition. Personal responsibility. Tax incentives. Subsidies for the poor who struggle to afford health insurance. Transparency in billing. On and on and on.

2. 2010 Elections
I figger. Lots of us hoping for 1994 redux in 2010. Me included.
The hope is for a rebuke of the President Obama leftie policies, just like ole Bill Clinton got in 1994 when he lost the Congress.
Old Newty was in charge of the deal in 1994 with his Contract with America.
Here's a quick Q&A with Newt: source.

Two important points here:

1. The repubs need a platform. Hey guys, how about presenting REAL choices on health care, global warming, jobs, etc. If I can do it here are williamt, then why can't the flippin' repubs?!? Does this require a Newt-like leader to pop up on the radar? Dunno.
   
2. It's not too late. I forgot how late and quick-striking the "Contract" was, as evidenced in my QOTD.
   

QOTD

"We didn’t do the Contract with America until late September of the election year [1994]."
- Newt, source

Sure would be nice to get a whiff of competence from the repubs before Sep 2010 though. He he.
I think if President Obama overreaches on global warming (coming up in December) just as he has on health care, then Congress 2010 is there for the taking.
peace... yow, bill

Labels: healthcare, myphoto, politics, qotd

Book: "Housekeeping" by Marilynne Robinson
Review: 3 bill-stars (out of 5)... good

This is the same girl who wrote "Gilead".
I like "Gilead" better, but "Housekeeping" is worthy.

I like Miz Robinson's slow, slow style. Her writing style is very smooth, readable, and wonderful. Both her books have had strong endings. That's rare. I also like that her books have "smack you in the face" themes.

"Housekeeping" isn't as interesting as "Gilead". "Gilead" was hoisted on the shoulders of following the old man through all his questioning and self-doubt and whatever. "Housekeeping" follows a teen-age girl through her trials and tribulations, which just isn't as compelling. The description of the town and neighbors was (I think) intentionally barren to make the girls seem more isolated. Well, that's OK, but it hurt my interest in the book.

There's a wonderful theme in parts of the book about the importance of things we don't see or don't know in everyday things or relationships. You look at someone and what they have done or achieved, but you don't see the things, good and bad, that they did not do. It's sort of like understanding how negative space can dominate a photograph. What's not there, not present is more important than what's there.

The gripping and beautiful example of this in the book is the suicide of the girls' mother. The girls wonders if her mother had not gone through with her suicide, then the young girl would never know it, never know the struggle won by not doing something. Here's a (long) QOTD that really captured this for me.

QOTD

"I remember her, grave with the peace of the destined, the summoned, and she seems almost an apparition.

But if she had simply brought us home again to the high frame apartment building with the scaffolding of stairs, I would not remember her that way.

Her eccentricities might have irked and embarrassed us when we grew older. We might have forgotten her birthday, and teased her to buy a car or to change her hair. We would have left her finally. We would have laughed together with bitterness and satisfaction at our strangely solitary childhood, in light of which our failings would seem inevitable, and all our attainments miraculous.

Then we would telephone her out of guilt and nostalgia, and laugh bitterly afterward because she asked us nothing, and told us nothing, and fell silent from time to time, and was glad to get off the phone. We would take her to a restaurant and a movie on Thanksgiving and buy her best-sellers for Christmas. We would try to give her outings and make her find some interests, but she would soften and shrink in our hands, and become infirm. She would bear her infirmities with the same taut patience with which she bore our solicitude, and with which she had borne every other aspect of life, and her silence would make us more and more furious."

- Ruthie, first person in "Housekeeping"

Strong.
peace... yow, bill

Labels: 3stars, books, myphoto, qotd

QOTD

"You need your head examined."
- Gram Krieger

Gram Krieger: Dec 7, 1909 - Oct 5 2004

Gram passed away 5 years ago today.
dop... yow, bill

PS - Ty and I visited this afternoon. Gram says hey. He he.

Labels: myphoto, qotd

QOTD

"It was bowling shoe ugly out there yesterday."
- sports radio guy on the Cub 12-3 loss to AZ

Do you pay taxes?
Duh.
Well, did you know this?

1. 47% of Americans pay no income tax
2. 24% of Americans don't even pay the payroll tax
   

I know. That doesn't sound right.
Well, here's the source. And the original source of the source is something called CNN Money.
It still doesn't seem possible. I don't know.

October. So great.
run faster... yow, bill

Labels: myphoto, politics, qotd

This Bloomies spam is forming the basis for my new fall wardrobe.

I just didn't want to startle anyone if you see me walking around looking like this dude.
And free shipping!

XKCD is good.

• Great XKCD today: www.xkcd.com/642/
• The wikipedia page on XKCD is fun: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xkcd
• The wikipedia page on the author is fun too: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Randall_Munroe

Ty bad-mouthed wikipedia yesterday, parroting his teacher, who was parroting something or someone else who was parroting...
he he... yow, bill

PS - I took this black walnut shot (below) this weekend. With all the tennis-ball size walnuts on the ground, I was struck by how many black walnuts were still hanging up in the trees above. Well, some nice kismet there... not a big storm last night, but windy. This morning my front lawn is a flipping carpet of hundreds and hundreds of black walnuts.

Labels: fun, myphoto, xkcd

Kids in Fantasy Football
Really fun story about kids in fantasy football leagues from Rob the Ranter:


We have kids in our fantasy baseball and football league. They do a really great job, and we have a blast. I'd point you to our league so you can see, but stupid Yahoo will only let members see it. Now, why Yahoo wants to prevent people from seeing the stupid ads that support all this stuff in the first place, I don't know. It's a brain twizzler.

I'd thank Rob T for his contribution, but I can't. I'm actually in the midst of a blogger blood feud with Rob T because he recently referred to "Leaving Las Vegas" as a "decent" film. Decent. Decent? I know I should defer to Rob T (with Aurora, IL being the film capital of the free world and all), but LLV is better than decent. One of the best metaphors for addiction, fun story, great performances, and Elizabeth Shue putting out for you. Decent! Dang. I demand retribution!

He he.
Why do I think I'm so funny... when I know I'm not.
Oh yeah , self-delusion.
Forgot.

Investing in China
One of my favorite investing blogs is the Mad Hedge Fund Trader. I don't always agree with the guy, but he's rational and reasonable... a hurdle many of these blogs cannot, um, hurdle.

Here's an interesting post on China/Asia: Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Stuff I liked from the post:

1. We are still far ahead of China... "Power is not shifting from West to East; Asia is just lifting itself off the mat, with per capita GDP only at $5,800, compared to $48,000 in the US."
   
2. Future global power will be more diffuse... "We are simply moving from a unipolar to a multipolar world. China is not going to dominate the world, or even Asia, where there is a long history of regional rivalries and wars. China can’t even control China, where recessions lead to revolutions, and 30% of the country, Tibet and the Uighurs, want to secede."
3. We need a new model/relationship with China longer-term... "All of Asia’s progress to date has been built on selling to the US market. Take us out, and they’re nowhere. With enormous resource, environmental, and demographic challenges constraining growth, Asia is not replacing the US anytime soon."
4. China's system is still in its infancy... "There is no miracle form of Asian capitalism; impoverished, younger populations are simply forced to save more because there is no social safety net. Ever heard of a Chinese unemployment office?"
5. The media sucks (he he)... "The press often touts the 600,000 engineers that China graduates, joined by 350,000 in India. In fact, 90% of these are only educated to a trade school standard. Asia only has one world class school, the University of Tokyo."
   

In my lifetime, this is the third narrative foreboding the end of the United States... the first two were Russia and Japan. So now, China and Asia are gong to kick our ass. Maybe. Could be. But I'm betting on the USA until we stop competing... not because we are competing. Make sense?

Investing in China and all emerging markets is the place to be, but it's neck-wrenching volatile... up and down 10% in a flash.

I'll leave you with QOTD from that post.

QOTD

"As much as we despise ourselves and wallow in our failures, Asians see us as a bright, shining example for the world. After all, it was our open trade policies and innovation that lifted them out of poverty and destitution. Walk the streets of China, as I have done for nearly four decades, and you feel this."
- Mad Hedge Fund Trader, source

A bright shining example for the world... Yup.
usa... yow, bill

PS - Our bikini lead over China remains formidable... as evidenced by Miss China over there. She's got my runner tan with the half-tanned legs. Dop.

PPS - Add this one to your favorites or delicious or whatever. I didn't go this year, but next? Maybe with Rob T if we're ever on speaking terms again. He he. Dammit. LOL.

Labels: fun, investing, myphoto, politics, qotd

Smile? Good lord.


QOTD

"Every time the state assumes an additional function such as health insurance, child care or benefits for the aged, the need for close family ties becomes weaker."
- some dude

These two quotes are the best thing in this article, I believe.


QOTD2

"It may be that one of the most effective ways of increasing allegiance to the state is through national health insurance."
- some other dude

Any debate on these QOTDs?
I think the real debate is whether you care about weaker "family ties" being replace by a stronger "allegiance to the state"... though our President and Congress won't ever admit this.
This is why the "Medicare for all" debate is so heated... and a hearty huzzah to that!

QOTD3

"Dude, this movie is awesome!"
- Teenager checkout "dude" at Best Buy last night... I was buying the "300" DVD

Movie: "300"
Review: 4 bill-stars (out of 5)... excellent!

"300" is silly, shallow... um, pretty stupid and gay... sue me. I like it. It does what it sets out to do and does it very well. It's pretty positive and fun. It's also one of the few "graphic novel" movies that I like. "300" and Watchmen"... that's about it.

Sigh. Smile. Cringe. I did all three pretty much simultaneously as my checkout "dude" attempted to bond with my cranky old 47 ass. He he. Oh well, I lived. Good one.
dude... yow, bill

Labels: 4stars, movies, myphoto, politics, qotd

Click on it... the biggie is worth it IMHO:


What the heck has gotten into little Wolfie Blitzer over there on CNN?!?
He asked David Axelrod THE question.
The Axe-man looks like he just took a football to the groin... hommina, hommina, doink.

THE health care question, you ask?
Well, President Obama argues that the feds ought to sell health insurance to increase competition on insurance companies and therefore lower prices.
THE health care question is: Why not tweak our arcane rules/regulations to increase competition between private insurers.


doink... yow, bill

Labels: myphoto, politics

80 years ago...

The great bull market peaked 80 years ago yesterday -- September 3, 1929. The Dow closed at 381.17. The crash didn't come until October. Three years later, the Dow was down to 41.22.

The Dow didn't make a new high until November 23, 1954.

- Source: www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2009/09/80_years_ago.html

No Great Depression 2 for us though. Hopefully.
How's this unemployment curve treating ya?

Source: http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/bespoke/2009/09/non-farm-payrolls-at-best-levels-since-lehman-bankruptcy.html

I'll have to do a Bill-investment post one of these days... what I've learned over the past year.
My end of the market-day trades are a-calling!
invest this... yow, bill

PS - Another crappy, lyrical QOTD

"I wanna tell everybody everybody
That you're so much more
Than they've ever even seen before

And I wanna tell everybody everybody
If they touched your hand
Then they'd never want to let you go"
- Sister Hazel, "Everybody"

Labels: investing, myphoto, qotd

QOTD

"By starlight
I'll kiss you
And promise to be
Your one and only

I'll make you
Feel happy
And leave you to be
Lost in mine

And where will we go
What will we do?
Soon said I
We'll know"
- Punkins, "By Starlight"

later... yow, bill

Labels: music, myphoto, qotd

What a wonderful present... this morning's WSJ.
Smart. Common sense. Non-partisan. Easy to understand. Simple to explain.
Enough already... mandatory reading:


QOTD

"... embrace the cheaper, smarter path of innovation"
- Bjorn Lomborg

Is it still possible to give President Obama's POS "Cap and Trade" tax hike bill the burlap sack treatment?
Hope so.
peace... yow, bill

Labels: globalwarming, myphoto, qotd